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| Current League Standings | P | GD | PTS | |
| 3 | New York Red Bulls | 30 | 7 | 47 |
| 4 | New York City FC | 29 | 14 | 45 |
| 5 | Orlando City | 28 | -5 | 42 |
| Current League Standings | P | GD | PTS | |
| 6 | Columbus Crew | 28 | 6 | 40 |
| 7 | FC Cincinnati | 28 | 4 | 38 |
| 8 | New England Revolution | 29 | 0 | 38 |
Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a New York City FC win with a probability of 69.16%. A draw had a probability of 17.9% and a win for FC Cincinnati had a probability of 12.99%.
The most likely scoreline for a New York City FC win was 2-0 with a probability of 10.76%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 2-1 (9.68%) and 1-0 (9.29%). The likeliest drawn scoreline was 1-1 (8.35%), while for a FC Cincinnati win it was 1-2 (3.75%). The actual scoreline of 1-1 was predicted with an 8.3% likelihood.
| Result | ||
| New York City FC | Draw | FC Cincinnati |
69.16% ( 0.66) | 17.86% ( -0.28) | 12.99% ( -0.38) |
| Both teams to score 53.47% ( -0.12) |
| Goals |
| Over 2.5 | Under 2.5 |
| 62.38% ( 0.4) | 37.62% ( -0.4) |
| Over 3.5 | Under 3.5 |
| 40.14% ( 0.43) | 59.86% ( -0.43) |
| New York City FC Goals |
| Over 0.5 | Under 0.5 |
| 90.16% ( 0.27) | 9.84% ( -0.27) |
| Over 1.5 | Under 1.5 |
| 67.34% ( 0.62) | 32.66% ( -0.62) |
| FC Cincinnati Goals |
| Over 0.5 | Under 0.5 |
| 59.31% ( -0.31) | 40.69% ( 0.31) |
