SM
Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Auxerre win with a probability of 38.57%. A win for Ajaccio had a probability of 34.31% and a draw had a probability of 27.1%.
The most likely scoreline for an Auxerre win was 0-1 with a probability of 10.77%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 1-2 (8.25%) and 0-2 (6.91%). The likeliest Ajaccio win was 1-0 (10.03%), while for a drawn scoreline it was 1-1 (12.86%). The actual scoreline of 0-3 was predicted with a 3% likelihood. Our team at Sports Mole and our data analysis both correctly predicted that Auxerre would win this match.
| Result | ||
| Ajaccio | Draw | Auxerre |
34.31% ( -0.02) | 27.12% ( -0.01) | 38.57% ( 0.03) |
| Both teams to score 50.37% ( 0.03) |
| Goals |
| Over 2.5 | Under 2.5 |
| 45.02% ( 0.04) | 54.97% ( -0.05) |
| Over 3.5 | Under 3.5 |
| 23.75% ( 0.03) | 76.25% ( -0.04) |
| Ajaccio Goals |
| Over 0.5 | Under 0.5 |
| 69.7% ( 0) | 30.3% ( -0.01) |
| Over 1.5 | Under 1.5 | ||||||||
| 33.52% ( 0.01) | 66.48% ( -0.01) |
| Auxerre Goals |
| Over 0.5 | Under 0.5 |
| 72.27% ( 0.03) | 27.72% ( -0.04) |
| Over 1.5 | Under 1.5 | ||||||||
| 36.71% ( 0.05) | 63.29% ( -0.05) |
| Score Analysis |
| Ajaccio | Draw | Auxerre |
| 1-0 @ 10.03% ( -0.01) 2-1 @ 7.68% ( -0)2-0 @ 5.99% ( -0.01)3-1 @ 3.06% 3-0 @ 2.38% ( -0)3-2 @ 1.96% ( 0)4-1 @ 0.91% ( 0)Other @ 2.3% Total : 34.31% | 1-1 @ 12.86% ( -0.01) 0-0 @ 8.4% ( -0.01)2-2 @ 4.93% ( 0)Other @ 0.92% Total : 27.11% | 0-1 @ 10.77% ( -0.01) 1-2 @ 8.25% ( 0.01)0-2 @ 6.91% ( 0)1-3 @ 3.53% ( 0.01)0-3 @ 2.96% ( 0)2-3 @ 2.11% ( 0)1-4 @ 1.13% ( 0)0-4 @ 0.95% ( 0)Other @ 1.95% Total : 38.56% |
| Team | P | W | D | L | F | A | GD | PTS | |
| 1 | Paris Saint-GermainPSG | 35 | 26 | 3 | 6 | 84 | 35 | 49 | 81 |
| 2 | Lens | 35 | 22 | 9 | 4 | 59 | 27 | 32 | 75 |
| 3 | Marseille | 36 | 22 | 7 | 7 | 66 | 37 | 29 | 73 |
| 4 | MonacoMonaco | 36 | 19 | 8 | 9 | 69 | 54 | 15 | 65 |
| 5 | Lille | 36 | 18 | 9 | 9 | 62 | 42 | 20 | 63 |
| 6 | Rennes | 36 | 19 | 5 | 12 | 65 | 38 | 27 | 62 |
| 7 | Lyon | 36 | 17 | 8 | 11 | 61 | 44 | 17 | 59 |
| 8 | Clermont | 35 | 15 | 8 | 12 | 39 | 45 | -6 | 53 |
| 9 | Lorient | 35 | 14 | 10 | 11 | 49 | 47 | 2 | 52 |
| 10 | Nice | 35 | 13 | 12 | 10 | 42 | 34 | 8 | 51 |
| 11 | Reims | 35 | 12 | 14 | 9 | 42 | 37 | 5 | 50 |
| 12 | Montpellier HSCMontpellier | 36 | 14 | 5 | 17 | 60 | 58 | 2 | 47 |
| 13 | Toulouse | 35 | 12 | 7 | 16 | 48 | 55 | -7 | 43 |
| 14 | StrasbourgStrasbourg | 35 | 9 | 11 | 15 | 48 | 55 | -7 | 38 |
| 15 | Brest | 35 | 9 | 11 | 15 | 39 | 50 | -11 | 38 |
| 16 | Auxerre | 35 | 8 | 10 | 17 | 32 | 57 | -25 | 34 |
| 17 | NantesNantes | 36 | 6 | 15 | 15 | 35 | 53 | -18 | 33 |
| R | Ajaccio | 36 | 6 | 5 | 25 | 22 | 71 | -49 | 23 |
| R | Troyes | 35 | 4 | 10 | 21 | 42 | 77 | -35 | 22 |
| R | Angers | 35 | 3 | 5 | 27 | 29 | 77 | -48 | 14 |
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