SM
Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Lorient win with a probability of 38.43%. A win for Ajaccio had a probability of 33.25% and a draw had a probability of 28.3%.
The most likely scoreline for a Lorient win was 1-0 with a probability of 12.05%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 2-1 (7.96%) and 2-0 (7.25%). The likeliest Ajaccio win was 0-1 (11%), while for a drawn scoreline it was 1-1 (13.23%). The actual scoreline of 3-0 was predicted with a 2.9% likelihood. Our team at Sports Mole and our data analysis both correctly predicted that Lorient would win this match.
| Result | ||
| Lorient | Draw | Ajaccio |
38.43% ( 0.04) | 28.32% ( -0.02) | 33.25% ( -0.03) |
| Both teams to score 46.62% ( 0.03) |
| Goals |
| Over 2.5 | Under 2.5 |
| 40.4% ( 0.04) | 59.6% ( -0.04) |
| Over 3.5 | Under 3.5 |
| 20.07% ( 0.03) | 79.93% ( -0.03) |
| Lorient Goals |
| Over 0.5 | Under 0.5 |
| 69.96% ( 0.05) | 30.04% ( -0.05) |
| Over 1.5 | Under 1.5 | ||||||||
| 33.83% ( 0.06) | 66.17% ( -0.06) |
| Ajaccio Goals |
| Over 0.5 | Under 0.5 |
| 66.64% | 33.36% ( -0) |
| Over 1.5 | Under 1.5 | ||||||||
| 30.01% ( -0) | 69.99% ( -0) |
| Score Analysis |
| Lorient | Draw | Ajaccio |
| 1-0 @ 12.05% 2-1 @ 7.96% ( 0.01)2-0 @ 7.25% ( 0.01)3-1 @ 3.19% ( 0.01)3-0 @ 2.91% ( 0.01)3-2 @ 1.75% ( 0)4-1 @ 0.96% ( 0)Other @ 2.37% Total : 38.42% | 1-1 @ 13.23% 0-0 @ 10.02% ( -0.02)2-2 @ 4.37% ( 0)Other @ 0.7% Total : 28.31% | 0-1 @ 11% ( -0.02) 1-2 @ 7.26% ( -0)0-2 @ 6.04% ( -0.01)1-3 @ 2.66% ( -0)0-3 @ 2.21% ( -0)2-3 @ 1.6% ( 0)Other @ 2.49% Total : 33.25% |
| Team | P | W | D | L | F | A | GD | PTS | |
| 1 | Paris Saint-GermainPSG | 30 | 22 | 3 | 5 | 70 | 29 | 41 | 69 |
| 2 | Lens | 30 | 18 | 9 | 3 | 50 | 22 | 28 | 63 |
| 3 | Marseille | 29 | 18 | 6 | 5 | 54 | 29 | 25 | 60 |
| 4 | MonacoMonaco | 30 | 17 | 7 | 6 | 63 | 42 | 21 | 58 |
| 5 | Lille | 30 | 15 | 7 | 8 | 54 | 38 | 16 | 52 |
| 6 | Rennes | 30 | 15 | 5 | 10 | 48 | 33 | 15 | 50 |
| 7 | Lyon | 30 | 13 | 8 | 9 | 47 | 33 | 14 | 47 |
| 8 | Reims | 30 | 11 | 14 | 5 | 40 | 29 | 11 | 47 |
| 9 | Nice | 30 | 11 | 12 | 7 | 38 | 28 | 10 | 45 |
| 10 | Lorient | 29 | 12 | 8 | 9 | 42 | 40 | 2 | 44 |
| 11 | Clermont | 30 | 11 | 7 | 12 | 31 | 41 | -10 | 40 |
| 12 | Toulouse | 30 | 11 | 5 | 14 | 46 | 52 | -6 | 38 |
| 13 | Montpellier HSCMontpellier | 30 | 11 | 4 | 15 | 46 | 50 | -4 | 37 |
| 14 | NantesNantes | 30 | 6 | 13 | 11 | 32 | 42 | -10 | 31 |
| 15 | Auxerre | 30 | 7 | 8 | 15 | 27 | 51 | -24 | 29 |
| 16 | Brest | 30 | 6 | 10 | 14 | 34 | 48 | -14 | 28 |
| 17 | StrasbourgStrasbourg | 30 | 5 | 11 | 14 | 38 | 52 | -14 | 26 |
| 18 | Troyes | 30 | 4 | 9 | 17 | 38 | 64 | -26 | 21 |
| 19 | Ajaccio | 30 | 6 | 3 | 21 | 21 | 55 | -34 | 21 |
| 20 | Angers | 30 | 3 | 5 | 22 | 23 | 64 | -41 | 14 |
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