SM
Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Lyon win with a probability of 53.27%. A draw had a probability of 24.8% and a win for Ajaccio had a probability of 21.93%.
The most likely scoreline for a Lyon win was 0-1 with a probability of 12.46%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 0-2 (10.1%) and 1-2 (9.54%). The likeliest drawn scoreline was 1-1 (11.76%), while for an Ajaccio win it was 1-0 (7.25%). The actual scoreline of 0-2 was predicted with a 10.1% likelihood. Our team at Sports Mole and our data analysis both correctly predicted that Lyon would win this match.
| Result | ||
| Ajaccio | Draw | Lyon |
21.93% ( -0.03) | 24.79% ( -0.02) | 53.27% ( 0.05) |
| Both teams to score 49.03% ( 0.01) |
| Goals |
| Over 2.5 | Under 2.5 |
| 47.3% ( 0.03) | 52.69% ( -0.03) |
| Over 3.5 | Under 3.5 |
| 25.67% ( 0.03) | 74.33% ( -0.03) |
| Ajaccio Goals |
| Over 0.5 | Under 0.5 |
| 61.09% ( -0.01) | 38.91% ( 0.01) |
| Over 1.5 | Under 1.5 | ||||||||
| 24.36% ( -0.01) | 75.64% ( 0.01) |
| Lyon Goals |
| Over 0.5 | Under 0.5 |
| 80.25% ( 0.03) | 19.74% ( -0.03) |
| Over 1.5 | Under 1.5 | ||||||||
| 48.22% ( 0.05) | 51.77% ( -0.05) |
| Score Analysis |
| Ajaccio | Draw | Lyon |
| 1-0 @ 7.25% ( -0.01) 2-1 @ 5.55% ( -0)2-0 @ 3.42% ( -0.01)3-1 @ 1.75% ( -0)3-2 @ 1.42% ( -0)3-0 @ 1.08% ( -0)Other @ 1.46% Total : 21.93% | 1-1 @ 11.76% ( -0.01) 0-0 @ 7.68% ( -0.01)2-2 @ 4.5% Other @ 0.84% Total : 24.79% | 0-1 @ 12.46% 0-2 @ 10.1% 1-2 @ 9.54% ( 0)0-3 @ 5.47% ( 0.01)1-3 @ 5.16% ( 0.01)2-3 @ 2.44% ( 0)0-4 @ 2.22% ( 0.01)1-4 @ 2.09% ( 0)2-4 @ 0.99% ( 0)Other @ 2.8% Total : 53.26% |
| Team | P | W | D | L | F | A | GD | PTS | |
| 1 | Paris Saint-GermainPSG | 29 | 21 | 3 | 5 | 68 | 29 | 39 | 66 |
| 2 | Lens | 29 | 17 | 9 | 3 | 48 | 21 | 27 | 60 |
| 3 | Marseille | 29 | 18 | 6 | 5 | 54 | 29 | 25 | 60 |
| 4 | MonacoMonaco | 29 | 17 | 6 | 6 | 61 | 40 | 21 | 57 |
| 5 | Lille | 29 | 15 | 7 | 7 | 54 | 37 | 17 | 52 |
| 6 | Rennes | 29 | 15 | 5 | 9 | 47 | 30 | 17 | 50 |
| 7 | Reims | 29 | 11 | 13 | 5 | 39 | 28 | 11 | 46 |
| 8 | Nice | 29 | 11 | 12 | 6 | 38 | 26 | 12 | 45 |
| 9 | Lyon | 29 | 12 | 8 | 9 | 44 | 32 | 12 | 44 |
| 10 | Lorient | 29 | 12 | 8 | 9 | 42 | 40 | 2 | 44 |
| 11 | Montpellier HSCMontpellier | 29 | 11 | 4 | 14 | 45 | 48 | -3 | 37 |
| 12 | Clermont | 29 | 10 | 7 | 12 | 29 | 41 | -12 | 37 |
| 13 | Toulouse | 29 | 10 | 5 | 14 | 44 | 51 | -7 | 35 |
| 14 | NantesNantes | 29 | 6 | 12 | 11 | 30 | 40 | -10 | 30 |
| 15 | Brest | 29 | 6 | 9 | 14 | 33 | 47 | -14 | 27 |
| 16 | StrasbourgStrasbourg | 29 | 5 | 11 | 13 | 37 | 50 | -13 | 26 |
| 17 | Auxerre | 29 | 6 | 8 | 15 | 24 | 51 | -27 | 26 |
| 18 | Troyes | 29 | 4 | 9 | 16 | 38 | 62 | -24 | 21 |
| 19 | Ajaccio | 29 | 6 | 3 | 20 | 21 | 52 | -31 | 21 |
| 20 | Angers | 29 | 2 | 5 | 22 | 22 | 64 | -42 | 11 |
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