SM
Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Northampton Town win with a probability of 40.53%. A win for Gillingham had a probability of 30.99% and a draw had a probability of 28.5%.
The most likely scoreline for a Northampton Town win was 0-1 with a probability of 12.77%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 1-2 (8.12%) and 0-2 (7.84%). The likeliest Gillingham win was 1-0 (10.77%), while for a drawn scoreline it was 1-1 (13.22%). The actual scoreline of 0-2 was predicted with a 7.8% likelihood. Our data analysis correctly predicted that Northampton Town would win this match.
| Result | ||
| Gillingham | Draw | Northampton Town |
30.99% ( 0.01) | 28.48% ( -0.01) | 40.53% ( -0) |
| Both teams to score 45.58% ( 0.02) |
| Goals |
| Over 2.5 | Under 2.5 |
| 39.39% ( 0.02) | 60.61% ( -0.02) |
| Over 3.5 | Under 3.5 |
| 19.3% ( 0.02) | 80.7% ( -0.02) |
| Gillingham Goals |
| Over 0.5 | Under 0.5 |
| 64.48% ( 0.02) | 35.52% ( -0.02) |
