SM
Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Northampton Town win with a probability of 40.11%. A win for Newport County had a probability of 32.76% and a draw had a probability of 27.1%.
The most likely scoreline for a Northampton Town win was 1-0 with a probability of 11.12%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 2-1 (8.42%) and 2-0 (7.29%). The likeliest Newport County win was 0-1 (9.82%), while for a drawn scoreline it was 1-1 (12.86%). The actual scoreline of 1-1 was predicted with a 12.9% likelihood.
| Result | ||
| Northampton Town | Draw | Newport County |
40.11% ( 0.01) | 27.13% ( 0) | 32.76% ( -0.02) |
| Both teams to score 50.03% ( -0.01) |
| Goals |
| Over 2.5 | Under 2.5 |
| 44.74% ( -0.01) | 55.26% ( 0.01) |
| Over 3.5 | Under 3.5 |
| 23.51% ( -0.01) | 76.49% ( 0.01) |
| Northampton Town Goals |
| Over 0.5 | Under 0.5 |
| 73.01% ( 0) | 26.99% ( -0) |
| Over 1.5 | Under 1.5 |
| 37.66% ( 0) | 62.34% ( -0) |
| Newport County Goals |
| Over 0.5 | Under 0.5 |
| 68.53% ( -0.02) | 31.47% ( 0.02) |
