SM
Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Carlisle United win with a probability of 43.86%. A win for Sutton United had a probability of 28.73% and a draw had a probability of 27.4%.
The most likely scoreline for a Carlisle United win was 1-0 with a probability of 12.5%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 2-1 (8.66%) and 2-0 (8.4%). The likeliest Sutton United win was 0-1 (9.6%), while for a drawn scoreline it was 1-1 (12.89%). The actual scoreline of 1-1 was predicted with a 12.9% likelihood.
| Result | ||
| Carlisle United | Draw | Sutton United |
43.86% ( 0.16) | 27.41% ( -0.07) | 28.73% ( -0.09) |
| Both teams to score 47.55% ( 0.14) |
| Goals |
| Over 2.5 | Under 2.5 |
| 42.36% ( 0.2) | 57.64% ( -0.2) |
| Over 3.5 | Under 3.5 |
| 21.59% ( 0.16) | 78.4% ( -0.16) |
| Carlisle United Goals |
| Over 0.5 | Under 0.5 |
| 73.9% ( 0.17) | 26.1% ( -0.17) |
| Over 1.5 | Under 1.5 |
| 38.84% ( 0.23) | 61.16% ( -0.23) |
| Sutton United Goals |
| Over 0.5 | Under 0.5 |
| 64.34% ( 0.04) | 35.65% ( -0.04) |
