SM
Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a AFC Wimbledon win with a probability of 52.23%. A win for Swindon Town had a probability of 25.83% and a draw had a probability of 22%.
The most likely scoreline for an AFC Wimbledon win was 2-1 with a probability of 9.53%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 1-0 (7.36%) and 2-0 (7.21%). The likeliest Swindon Town win was 1-2 (6.44%), while for a drawn scoreline it was 1-1 (9.74%). The actual scoreline of 4-0 was predicted with a 2.3% likelihood. Our data analysis correctly predicted that AFC Wimbledon would win this match.
| Result | ||
| AFC Wimbledon | Draw | Swindon Town |
52.23% ( 0.01) | 21.95% ( -0.02) | 25.83% ( 0.01) |
| Both teams to score 63% ( 0.09) |
| Goals |
| Over 2.5 | Under 2.5 |
| 63.66% ( 0.11) | 36.35% ( -0.11) |
| Over 3.5 | Under 3.5 |
| 41.53% ( 0.13) | 58.48% ( -0.12) |
| AFC Wimbledon Goals |
| Over 0.5 | Under 0.5 |
| 85.87% ( 0.04) | 14.13% ( -0.04) |
| Over 1.5 | Under 1.5 | ||||||||
| 58.23% ( 0.08) | 41.78% ( -0.08) |
| Swindon Town Goals |
| Over 0.5 | Under 0.5 |
| 73.37% ( 0.07) | 26.64% ( -0.07) |
| Over 1.5 | Under 1.5 | ||||||||
| 38.13% ( 0.09) | 61.87% ( -0.09) |
| Score Analysis |
| AFC Wimbledon | Draw | Swindon Town |
| 2-1 @ 9.53% ( -0.01) 1-0 @ 7.36% ( -0.03)2-0 @ 7.21% ( -0.02)3-1 @ 6.22% ( 0.01)3-0 @ 4.7% ( -0.01)3-2 @ 4.11% ( 0.01)4-1 @ 3.04% ( 0.01)4-0 @ 2.3% ( 0)4-2 @ 2.01% ( 0.01)5-1 @ 1.19% ( 0.01)Other @ 4.54% Total : 52.23% | 1-1 @ 9.74% ( -0.02) 2-2 @ 6.31% ( 0.01)0-0 @ 3.76% ( -0.02)3-3 @ 1.81% ( 0.01)Other @ 0.33% Total : 21.95% | 1-2 @ 6.44% ( -0) 0-1 @ 4.98% ( -0.02)0-2 @ 3.29% ( -0)1-3 @ 2.84% ( 0)2-3 @ 2.78% ( 0.01)0-3 @ 1.45% 1-4 @ 0.94% ( 0)2-4 @ 0.92% ( 0.01)Other @ 2.18% Total : 25.83% |
| Team | P | W | D | L | F | A | GD | PTS | |
| 1 | Stockport CountyStockport | 27 | 16 | 6 | 5 | 56 | 27 | 29 | 54 |
| 2 | Wrexham | 26 | 15 | 7 | 4 | 54 | 36 | 18 | 52 |
| 3 | Mansfield TownMansfield | 26 | 13 | 11 | 2 | 45 | 21 | 24 | 50 |
| 4 | BarrowBarrow | 27 | 13 | 10 | 4 | 40 | 26 | 14 | 49 |
| 5 | Crewe AlexandraCrewe | 27 | 13 | 8 | 6 | 50 | 40 | 10 | 47 |
| 6 | Notts County | 27 | 13 | 4 | 10 | 60 | 52 | 8 | 43 |
| 7 | MK Dons | 25 | 12 | 6 | 7 | 41 | 32 | 9 | 42 |
| 8 | Gillingham | 26 | 13 | 2 | 11 | 23 | 31 | -8 | 41 |
| 9 | Harrogate TownHarrogate | 27 | 12 | 4 | 11 | 34 | 35 | -1 | 40 |
| 10 | AFC Wimbledon | 26 | 10 | 9 | 7 | 41 | 30 | 11 | 39 |
| 11 | Crawley TownCrawley | 27 | 12 | 3 | 12 | 43 | 45 | -2 | 39 |
| 12 | Accrington StanleyAccrington | 27 | 11 | 5 | 11 | 41 | 38 | 3 | 38 |
| 13 | Walsall | 26 | 10 | 6 | 10 | 40 | 39 | 1 | 36 |
| 14 | Bradford CityBradford | 27 | 9 | 8 | 10 | 34 | 36 | -2 | 35 |
| 15 | Swindon TownSwindon | 28 | 9 | 7 | 12 | 50 | 54 | -4 | 34 |
| 16 | Morecambe | 25 | 9 | 7 | 9 | 38 | 42 | -4 | 34 |
| 17 | Newport CountyNewport | 27 | 9 | 7 | 11 | 39 | 45 | -6 | 34 |
| 18 | Tranmere RoversTranmere | 28 | 10 | 3 | 15 | 43 | 42 | 1 | 33 |
| 19 | Grimsby Town | 27 | 6 | 10 | 11 | 40 | 49 | -9 | 28 |
| 20 | Doncaster RoversDoncaster | 27 | 8 | 4 | 15 | 31 | 47 | -16 | 28 |
| 21 | Salford City | 27 | 7 | 6 | 14 | 35 | 48 | -13 | 27 |
| 22 | Colchester UnitedColchester | 28 | 7 | 4 | 17 | 38 | 55 | -17 | 25 |
| 23 | Sutton UnitedSutton | 26 | 4 | 7 | 15 | 30 | 54 | -24 | 19 |
| 24 | Forest Green RoversForest Green | 26 | 4 | 6 | 16 | 26 | 48 | -22 | 18 |
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