Both teams enter this clash seeking vital points to fuel their promotion push, but we are backing Wimbledon for a narrow win, given their strong home form, having won their last three outings at Plough Lane. Read more.

Data Analysis

Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a AFC Wimbledon win with a probability of 41.31%. A win for Crewe Alexandra had a probability of 29.35% and a draw had a probability of 29.3%.

The most likely scoreline for an AFC Wimbledon win was 1-0 with a probability of 13.96%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 2-0 (8.3%) and 2-1 (7.91%). The likeliest Crewe Alexandra win was 0-1 (11.19%), while for a drawn scoreline it was 1-1 (13.3%). The actual scoreline of 3-0 was predicted with a 3.3% likelihood. Our team at Sports Mole and our data analysis both correctly predicted that AFC Wimbledon would win this match.

Result
AFC Wimbledon	Draw	Crewe Alexandra
41.31% ( 0.57)	29.33% ( -0.08)	29.35% ( -0.48)

Both teams to score 42.72% (

0.02)

Goals

Over 2.5

Under 2.5

36.15% (

0.12)

63.85% (

-0.11)

Over 3.5

Under 3.5

16.92% (

0.09)

83.07% (

-0.08)

AFC Wimbledon Goals

Over 0.5

Under 0.5

69.53% (

0.39)

30.47% (

-0.38)

Over 1.5

Under 1.5

33.32% (

0.46)

66.68% (

-0.46)

Crewe Alexandra Goals

Over 0.5

Under 0.5

61.44% (

-0.32)

38.56% (

0.32)

Over 1.5

Under 1.5

24.7% (

-0.31)

75.3% (

0.31)

Score Analysis

AFC Wimbledon 41.31%

Crewe Alexandra 29.35%

Draw 29.32%

AFC Wimbledon	Draw	Crewe Alexandra
1-0 @ 13.96% ( 0.09) 2-0 @ 8.3% ( 0.14) 2-1 @ 7.91% ( 0.07) 3-0 @ 3.29% ( 0.09) 3-1 @ 3.13% ( 0.06) 3-2 @ 1.49% ( 0.02) 4-0 @ 0.98% ( 0.04) 4-1 @ 0.93% ( 0.03) Other @ 1.33% Total : 41.31%	1-1 @ 13.3% ( -0.03) 0-0 @ 11.74% ( -0.05) 2-2 @ 3.77% ( -0) Other @ 0.51% Total : 29.32%	0-1 @ 11.19% ( -0.15) 1-2 @ 6.34% ( -0.07) 0-2 @ 5.34% ( -0.12) 1-3 @ 2.01% ( -0.04) 0-3 @ 1.7% ( -0.05) 2-3 @ 1.2% ( -0.01) Other @ 1.58% Total : 29.35%