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Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Crewe Alexandra win with a probability of 60.68%. A draw had a probability of 23% and a win for Newport County had a probability of 16.28%.
The most likely scoreline for a Crewe Alexandra win was 1-0 with a probability of 13.81%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 2-0 (12.17%) and 2-1 (9.54%). The likeliest drawn scoreline was 1-1 (10.82%), while for a Newport County win it was 0-1 (6.15%). The actual scoreline of 0-3 was predicted with a 0.6% likelihood.
| Result | ||
| Crewe Alexandra | Draw | Newport County |
60.68% ( 0.42) | 23.03% ( -0.07) | 16.28% ( -0.35) |
| Both teams to score 45.01% ( -0.5) |
| Goals |
| Over 2.5 | Under 2.5 |
| 46.79% ( -0.29) | 53.2% ( 0.29) |
| Over 3.5 | Under 3.5 |
| 25.23% ( -0.25) | 74.77% ( 0.25) |
| Crewe Alexandra Goals |
| Over 0.5 | Under 0.5 |
| 82.83% ( 0.04) | 17.17% ( -0.04) |
| Over 1.5 | Under 1.5 | |
| 52.58% ( 0.08) | 47.42% ( -0.08) |
| Newport County Goals |
| Over 0.5 | Under 0.5 |
| 54.34% ( -0.63) | 45.66% ( 0.63) |
| Over 1.5 | Under 1.5 | |
| 18.54% ( -0.5) | 81.46% ( 0.5) |
| Score Analysis |
| Crewe Alexandra | Draw | Newport County |
| 1-0 @ 13.81% ( 0.18) 2-0 @ 12.17% ( 0.18)2-1 @ 9.54% ( -0.03)3-0 @ 7.15% ( 0.11)3-1 @ 5.6% ( -0.01)4-0 @ 3.15% ( 0.05)4-1 @ 2.47% ( -0)3-2 @ 2.2% ( -0.04)5-0 @ 1.11% ( 0.02)4-2 @ 0.97% ( -0.02)Other @ 2.51% Total : 60.68% | 1-1 @ 10.82% ( -0.06) 0-0 @ 7.84% ( 0.09)2-2 @ 3.74% ( -0.08)Other @ 0.63% Total : 23.03% | 0-1 @ 6.15% ( -0.04) 1-2 @ 4.25% ( -0.1)0-2 @ 2.41% ( -0.06)1-3 @ 1.11% ( -0.04)2-3 @ 0.98% ( -0.04)Other @ 1.4% Total : 16.28% |
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