SM
Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Newport County win with a probability of 58.72%. A draw had a probability of 23.6% and a win for Crewe Alexandra had a probability of 17.65%.
The most likely scoreline for a Newport County win was 1-0 with a probability of 13.57%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 2-0 (11.66%) and 2-1 (9.56%). The likeliest drawn scoreline was 1-1 (11.13%), while for a Crewe Alexandra win it was 0-1 (6.48%). The actual scoreline of 2-2 was predicted with a 3.9% likelihood.
| Result | ||
| Newport County | Draw | Crewe Alexandra |
58.72% ( -0.36) | 23.62% ( 0.17) | 17.65% ( 0.19) |
| Both teams to score 45.93% ( -0.12) |
| Goals |
| Over 2.5 | Under 2.5 |
| 46.6% ( -0.36) | 53.39% ( 0.36) |
| Over 3.5 | Under 3.5 |
| 25.07% ( -0.3) | 74.93% ( 0.3) |
| Newport County Goals |
| Over 0.5 | Under 0.5 |
| 82.06% ( -0.26) | 17.93% ( 0.26) |
| Over 1.5 | Under 1.5 |
| 51.24% ( -0.45) | 48.76% ( 0.45) |
| Crewe Alexandra Goals |
| Over 0.5 | Under 0.5 |
| 55.96% ( 0.03) | 44.03% ( -0.03) |
