SM
| Current League Standings | P | GD | PTS | |
| 6 | Real Sociedad | 3 | -1 | 6 |
| 7 | Barcelona | 2 | 3 | 4 |
| 8 | Athletic Bilbao | 2 | 1 | 4 |
| Current League Standings | P | GD | PTS | |
| 16 | Espanyol | 2 | -2 | 1 |
| 17 | Real Valladolid | 2 | -3 | 1 |
| 18 | Elche | 3 | -4 | 1 |
Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Barcelona win with a probability of 58.19%. A draw had a probability of 21.4% and a win for Real Valladolid had a probability of 20.36%.
The most likely scoreline for a Barcelona win was 2-1 with a probability of 9.92%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 1-0 (9.07%) and 2-0 (9.05%). The likeliest drawn scoreline was 1-1 (9.94%), while for a Real Valladolid win it was 1-2 (5.45%). The actual scoreline of 4-0 was predicted with a 3% likelihood. Our team at Sports Mole and our data analysis both correctly predicted that Barcelona would win this match.
| Result | ||
| Barcelona | Draw | Real Valladolid |
58.19% ( 0.3) | 21.44% ( -0.05) | 20.36% ( -0.25) |
| Both teams to score 57.51% ( -0.25) |
| Goals |
| Over 2.5 | Under 2.5 |
| 59.67% ( -0.14) | 40.33% ( 0.14) |
| Over 3.5 | Under 3.5 |
| 37.29% ( -0.14) | 62.71% ( 0.14) |
| Barcelona Goals |
| Over 0.5 | Under 0.5 |
| 86.39% ( 0.05) | 13.61% ( -0.04) |
| Over 1.5 | Under 1.5 | ||||||||
| 59.25% ( 0.09) | 40.75% ( -0.09) |
| Real Valladolid Goals |
| Over 0.5 | Under 0.5 |
| 66.56% ( -0.32) | 33.43% ( 0.32) |
| Over 1.5 | Under 1.5 | ||||||||
| 29.93% ( -0.35) | 70.06% ( 0.35) |
| Score Analysis |
| Barcelona | Draw | Real Valladolid |
| 2-1 @ 9.92% ( 0.01) 1-0 @ 9.07% ( 0.07)2-0 @ 9.05% ( 0.09)3-1 @ 6.59% ( 0.02)3-0 @ 6.02% ( 0.07)3-2 @ 3.61% ( -0.02)4-1 @ 3.29% ( 0.01)4-0 @ 3% ( 0.04)4-2 @ 1.8% ( -0.01)5-1 @ 1.31% ( 0.01)5-0 @ 1.2% ( 0.02)Other @ 3.34% Total : 58.2% | 1-1 @ 9.94% ( -0.01) 2-2 @ 5.43% ( -0.04)0-0 @ 4.55% ( 0.03)3-3 @ 1.32% ( -0.02)Other @ 0.2% Total : 21.44% | 1-2 @ 5.45% ( -0.05) 0-1 @ 4.99% ( -0.01)0-2 @ 2.73% ( -0.03)1-3 @ 1.99% ( -0.04)2-3 @ 1.98% ( -0.03)0-3 @ 1% ( -0.02)Other @ 2.23% Total : 20.36% |
| Team | P | W | D | L | F | A | GD | PTS | |
| C | Barcelona | 37 | 28 | 4 | 5 | 69 | 18 | 51 | 88 |
| 2 | Real Madrid | 37 | 24 | 5 | 8 | 74 | 35 | 39 | 77 |
| 3 | Atletico MadridAtletico | 37 | 23 | 7 | 7 | 68 | 31 | 37 | 76 |
| 4 | Real Sociedad | 37 | 20 | 8 | 9 | 49 | 34 | 15 | 68 |
| 5 | Villarreal | 37 | 19 | 6 | 12 | 57 | 38 | 19 | 63 |
| 6 | Real BetisBetis | 37 | 17 | 8 | 12 | 45 | 40 | 5 | 59 |
| 7 | Osasuna | 37 | 14 | 8 | 15 | 35 | 41 | -6 | 50 |
| 8 | Athletic Bilbao | 37 | 14 | 8 | 15 | 46 | 42 | 4 | 50 |
| 9 | GironaGirona | 37 | 13 | 10 | 14 | 57 | 53 | 4 | 49 |
| 10 | Rayo Vallecano | 37 | 13 | 10 | 14 | 45 | 50 | -5 | 49 |
| 11 | Sevilla | 37 | 13 | 10 | 14 | 46 | 52 | -6 | 49 |
| 12 | Mallorca | 37 | 13 | 8 | 16 | 34 | 43 | -9 | 47 |
| 13 | Valencia | 37 | 11 | 8 | 18 | 41 | 44 | -3 | 41 |
| 14 | CadizCadiz | 37 | 10 | 11 | 16 | 29 | 52 | -23 | 41 |
| 15 | Getafe | 37 | 10 | 11 | 16 | 34 | 45 | -11 | 41 |
| 16 | Almeria | 37 | 11 | 7 | 19 | 46 | 62 | -16 | 40 |
| 17 | Celta Vigo | 37 | 10 | 10 | 17 | 41 | 52 | -11 | 40 |
| 18 | Real ValladolidValladolid | 37 | 11 | 6 | 20 | 33 | 63 | -30 | 39 |
| R | Espanyol | 37 | 8 | 12 | 17 | 49 | 66 | -17 | 36 |
| R | ElcheElche | 37 | 5 | 9 | 23 | 29 | 66 | -37 | 24 |
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