SM
Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Barcelona win with a probability of 60.66%. A draw had a probability of 21.2% and a win for Athletic Bilbao had a probability of 18.13%.
The most likely scoreline for a Barcelona win was 1-0 with a probability of 10.07%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 2-0 (10.04%) and 2-1 (9.96%). The likeliest drawn scoreline was 1-1 (9.99%), while for an Athletic Bilbao win it was 0-1 (5.01%). The actual scoreline of 4-0 was predicted with a 3.3% likelihood. Our team at Sports Mole and our data analysis both correctly predicted that Barcelona would win this match.
| Result | ||
| Barcelona | Draw | Athletic Bilbao |
60.66% ( -0.05) | 21.2% ( -0.03) | 18.13% ( 0.08) |
| Both teams to score 54.32% ( 0.28) |
| Goals |
| Over 2.5 | Under 2.5 |
| 57.34% ( 0.29) | 42.65% ( -0.29) |
| Over 3.5 | Under 3.5 |
| 34.94% ( 0.28) | 65.06% ( -0.28) |
| Barcelona Goals |
| Over 0.5 | Under 0.5 |
| 86.39% ( 0.08) | 13.61% ( -0.08) |
| Over 1.5 | Under 1.5 | ||||||||
| 59.24% ( 0.15) | 40.76% ( -0.15) |
| Athletic Bilbao Goals |
| Over 0.5 | Under 0.5 |
| 62.87% ( 0.26) | 37.12% ( -0.27) |
| Over 1.5 | Under 1.5 | ||||||||
| 26.09% ( 0.26) | 73.91% ( -0.26) |
| Score Analysis |
| Barcelona | Draw | Athletic Bilbao |
| 1-0 @ 10.07% ( -0.1) 2-0 @ 10.04% ( -0.07)2-1 @ 9.96% ( 0)3-0 @ 6.68% ( -0.03)3-1 @ 6.62% ( 0.02)4-0 @ 3.33% ( -0)4-1 @ 3.3% ( 0.02)3-2 @ 3.28% ( 0.03)4-2 @ 1.64% ( 0.02)5-0 @ 1.33% ( 0)5-1 @ 1.32% ( 0.01)Other @ 3.09% Total : 60.65% | 1-1 @ 9.99% ( -0.02) 0-0 @ 5.05% ( -0.07)2-2 @ 4.93% ( 0.04)3-3 @ 1.08% ( 0.02)Other @ 0.15% Total : 21.2% | 0-1 @ 5.01% ( -0.03) 1-2 @ 4.95% ( 0.02)0-2 @ 2.48% ( 0)1-3 @ 1.63% ( 0.02)2-3 @ 1.63% ( 0.02)Other @ 2.43% Total : 18.13% |
| Team | P | W | D | L | F | A | GD | PTS | |
| C | Barcelona | 37 | 28 | 4 | 5 | 69 | 18 | 51 | 88 |
| 2 | Real Madrid | 37 | 24 | 5 | 8 | 74 | 35 | 39 | 77 |
| 3 | Atletico MadridAtletico | 37 | 23 | 7 | 7 | 68 | 31 | 37 | 76 |
| 4 | Real Sociedad | 37 | 20 | 8 | 9 | 49 | 34 | 15 | 68 |
| 5 | Villarreal | 37 | 19 | 6 | 12 | 57 | 38 | 19 | 63 |
| 6 | Real BetisBetis | 37 | 17 | 8 | 12 | 45 | 40 | 5 | 59 |
| 7 | Osasuna | 37 | 14 | 8 | 15 | 35 | 41 | -6 | 50 |
| 8 | Athletic Bilbao | 37 | 14 | 8 | 15 | 46 | 42 | 4 | 50 |
| 9 | GironaGirona | 37 | 13 | 10 | 14 | 57 | 53 | 4 | 49 |
| 10 | Rayo Vallecano | 37 | 13 | 10 | 14 | 45 | 50 | -5 | 49 |
| 11 | Sevilla | 37 | 13 | 10 | 14 | 46 | 52 | -6 | 49 |
| 12 | Mallorca | 37 | 13 | 8 | 16 | 34 | 43 | -9 | 47 |
| 13 | Valencia | 37 | 11 | 8 | 18 | 41 | 44 | -3 | 41 |
| 14 | CadizCadiz | 37 | 10 | 11 | 16 | 29 | 52 | -23 | 41 |
| 15 | Getafe | 37 | 10 | 11 | 16 | 34 | 45 | -11 | 41 |
| 16 | Almeria | 37 | 11 | 7 | 19 | 46 | 62 | -16 | 40 |
| 17 | Celta Vigo | 37 | 10 | 10 | 17 | 41 | 52 | -11 | 40 |
| 18 | Real ValladolidValladolid | 37 | 11 | 6 | 20 | 33 | 63 | -30 | 39 |
| R | Espanyol | 37 | 8 | 12 | 17 | 49 | 66 | -17 | 36 |
| R | ElcheElche | 37 | 5 | 9 | 23 | 29 | 66 | -37 | 24 |
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