SM
Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Chile win with a probability of 46.82%. A win for Panama had a probability of 27.65% and a draw had a probability of 25.5%.
The most likely scoreline for a Chile win was 1-0 with a probability of 10.93%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 2-1 (9.26%) and 2-0 (8.34%). The likeliest Panama win was 0-1 (7.96%), while for a drawn scoreline it was 1-1 (12.14%). The actual scoreline of 6-1 was predicted with a 0.1% likelihood. Our team at Sports Mole and our data analysis both correctly predicted that Chile would win this match.
| Result | ||
| Chile | Draw | Panama |
46.82% ( 0.36) | 25.53% ( -0.21) | 27.65% ( -0.15) |
| Both teams to score 52.46% ( 0.54) |
| Goals |
| Over 2.5 | Under 2.5 |
| 49.04% ( 0.76) | 50.96% ( -0.75) |
| Over 3.5 | Under 3.5 |
| 27.17% ( 0.66) | 72.83% ( -0.66) |
| Chile Goals |
| Over 0.5 | Under 0.5 |
| 78.23% ( 0.48) | 21.77% ( -0.48) |
| Over 1.5 | Under 1.5 | |
| 45.04% ( 0.72) | 54.95% ( -0.72) |
| Panama Goals |
| Over 0.5 | Under 0.5 |
| 67.06% ( 0.28) | 32.94% ( -0.28) |
| Over 1.5 | Under 1.5 | |
| 30.48% ( 0.31) | 69.52% ( -0.31) |
| Score Analysis |
| Chile | Draw | Panama |
| 1-0 @ 10.93% ( -0.17) 2-1 @ 9.26% ( 0.06)2-0 @ 8.34% ( -0.01)3-1 @ 4.71% ( 0.1)3-0 @ 4.24% ( 0.05)3-2 @ 2.61% ( 0.07)4-1 @ 1.79% ( 0.06)4-0 @ 1.62% ( 0.04)4-2 @ 1% ( 0.04)Other @ 2.34% Total : 46.82% | 1-1 @ 12.14% ( -0.1) 0-0 @ 7.17% ( -0.22)2-2 @ 5.14% ( 0.07)3-3 @ 0.97% ( 0.03)Other @ 0.11% Total : 25.53% | 0-1 @ 7.96% ( -0.18) 1-2 @ 6.74% ( -0)0-2 @ 4.42% ( -0.07)1-3 @ 2.5% ( 0.02)2-3 @ 1.9% ( 0.04)0-3 @ 1.64% ( -0.01)Other @ 2.5% Total : 27.65% |
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