SM
| Current Group H Standings | P | GD | PTS | |
| 1 | Finland | 4 | 7 | 9 |
| 2 | Kazakhstan | 4 | 4 | 9 |
| 3 | Denmark | 4 | 2 | 7 |
| 4 | Slovenia | 4 | 1 | 7 |
| 5 | Northern Ireland | 4 | -1 | 3 |
| 6 | San Marino | 4 | -13 | 0 |
| Current Group H Standings | P | GD | PTS | |
| 1 | Finland | 4 | 7 | 9 |
| 2 | Kazakhstan | 4 | 4 | 9 |
| 3 | Denmark | 4 | 2 | 7 |
| 4 | Slovenia | 4 | 1 | 7 |
| 5 | Northern Ireland | 4 | -1 | 3 |
| 6 | San Marino | 4 | -13 | 0 |
Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Slovenia win with a probability of 43.49%. A win for Northern Ireland had a probability of 29.98% and a draw had a probability of 26.5%.
The most likely scoreline for a Slovenia win was 1-0 with a probability of 11.26%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 2-1 (8.85%) and 2-0 (7.91%). The likeliest Northern Ireland win was 0-1 (8.97%), while for a drawn scoreline it was 1-1 (12.6%). The actual scoreline of 4-2 was predicted with a 0.8% likelihood. Our team at Sports Mole and our data analysis both correctly predicted that Slovenia would win this match.
| Result | ||
| Slovenia | Draw | Northern Ireland |
43.49% ( 1.68) | 26.53% ( -0.41) | 29.98% ( -1.27) |
| Both teams to score 50.8% ( 0.7) |
| Goals |
| Over 2.5 | Under 2.5 |
| 46.21% ( 1.15) | 53.79% ( -1.15) |
| Over 3.5 | Under 3.5 |
| 24.74% ( 0.96) | 75.26% ( -0.96) |
| Slovenia Goals |
| Over 0.5 | Under 0.5 |
| 75.45% ( 1.38) | 24.55% ( -1.38) |
| Over 1.5 | Under 1.5 | |
| 40.97% ( 1.9) | 59.03% ( -1.9) |
| Northern Ireland Goals |
| Over 0.5 | Under 0.5 |
| 67.33% ( -0.31) | 32.67% ( 0.31) |
| Over 1.5 | Under 1.5 | |
| 30.78% ( -0.36) | 69.22% ( 0.36) |
| Score Analysis |
| Slovenia | Draw | Northern Ireland |
| 1-0 @ 11.26% ( -0.06) 2-1 @ 8.85% ( 0.23)2-0 @ 7.91% ( 0.27)3-1 @ 4.14% ( 0.26)3-0 @ 3.7% ( 0.27)3-2 @ 2.32% ( 0.13)4-1 @ 1.46% ( 0.15)4-0 @ 1.3% ( 0.14)Other @ 2.55% Total : 43.49% | 1-1 @ 12.6% ( -0.17) 0-0 @ 8.02% ( -0.37)2-2 @ 4.95% ( 0.08)Other @ 0.95% Total : 26.52% | 0-1 @ 8.97% ( -0.49) 1-2 @ 7.05% ( -0.16)0-2 @ 5.02% ( -0.32)1-3 @ 2.63% ( -0.08)0-3 @ 1.87% ( -0.14)2-3 @ 1.85% ( 0.02)Other @ 2.59% Total : 29.98% |
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