SM
| Current Group H Standings | P | GD | PTS | |
| 1 | Finland | 5 | 8 | 12 |
| 2 | Denmark | 5 | 6 | 10 |
| 3 | Slovenia | 5 | 3 | 10 |
| 4 | Kazakhstan | 5 | 3 | 9 |
| 5 | Northern Ireland | 5 | -3 | 3 |
| 6 | San Marino | 5 | -17 | 0 |
| Current Group H Standings | P | GD | PTS | |
| 1 | Finland | 5 | 8 | 12 |
| 2 | Denmark | 5 | 6 | 10 |
| 3 | Slovenia | 5 | 3 | 10 |
| 4 | Kazakhstan | 5 | 3 | 9 |
| 5 | Northern Ireland | 5 | -3 | 3 |
| 6 | San Marino | 5 | -17 | 0 |
Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Northern Ireland win with a probability of 51.12%. A draw had a probability of 25.8% and a win for Kazakhstan had a probability of 23.1%.
The most likely scoreline for a Northern Ireland win was 0-1 with a probability of 13%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 0-2 (9.94%) and 1-2 (9.3%). The likeliest drawn scoreline was 1-1 (12.16%), while for a Kazakhstan win it was 1-0 (7.96%). The actual scoreline of 1-0 was predicted with a 8% likelihood. Our team at Sports Mole correctly predicted that Kazakhstan would win this match.
| Result | ||
| Kazakhstan | Draw | Northern Ireland |
23.1% ( 0.16) | 25.78% ( 0.01) | 51.12% ( -0.16) |
| Both teams to score 47.59% ( 0.16) |
| Goals |
| Over 2.5 | Under 2.5 |
| 44.71% ( 0.12) | 55.3% ( -0.11) |
| Over 3.5 | Under 3.5 |
| 23.49% ( 0.09) | 76.52% ( -0.09) |
| Kazakhstan Goals |
| Over 0.5 | Under 0.5 |
| 60.76% ( 0.22) | 39.24% ( -0.22) |
| Over 1.5 | Under 1.5 | |
| 24.06% ( 0.2) | 75.95% ( -0.2) |
| Northern Ireland Goals |
| Over 0.5 | Under 0.5 |
| 78.33% ( -0.02) | 21.68% ( 0.02) |
| Over 1.5 | Under 1.5 | |
| 45.18% ( -0.04) | 54.82% ( 0.04) |
| Score Analysis |
| Kazakhstan | Draw | Northern Ireland |
| 1-0 @ 7.96% ( 0.01) 2-1 @ 5.69% ( 0.04)2-0 @ 3.72% ( 0.03)3-1 @ 1.78% ( 0.02)3-2 @ 1.36% ( 0.02)3-0 @ 1.16% ( 0.02)Other @ 1.44% Total : 23.1% | 1-1 @ 12.16% ( 0.01) 0-0 @ 8.51% ( -0.04)2-2 @ 4.35% ( 0.03)Other @ 0.76% Total : 25.77% | 0-1 @ 13% ( -0.07) 0-2 @ 9.94% ( -0.06)1-2 @ 9.3% ( 0)0-3 @ 5.07% ( -0.03)1-3 @ 4.74% ( -0)2-3 @ 2.22% ( 0.01)0-4 @ 1.94% ( -0.01)1-4 @ 1.81% ( -0)Other @ 3.1% Total : 51.12% |
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