SM
Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Ajax win with a probability of 61.6%. A draw had a probability of 19.2% and a win for Vitesse had a probability of 19.15%.
The most likely scoreline for an Ajax win was 2-1 with a probability of 9.54%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 2-0 (7.81%) and 3-1 (7.33%). The likeliest drawn scoreline was 1-1 (8.29%), while for a Vitesse win it was 1-2 (5.06%). The actual scoreline of 5-0 was predicted with a 1.6% likelihood. Our team at Sports Mole and our data analysis both correctly predicted that Ajax would win this match.
| Result | ||
| Ajax | Draw | Vitesse |
61.6% ( -0.04) | 19.24% ( -0) | 19.15% ( 0.04) |
| Both teams to score 63.49% ( 0.08) |
| Goals |
| Over 2.5 | Under 2.5 |
| 68.39% ( 0.07) | 31.61% ( -0.07) |
| Over 3.5 | Under 3.5 |
| 46.89% ( 0.09) | 53.11% ( -0.09) |
| Ajax Goals |
| Over 0.5 | Under 0.5 |
| 90% ( 0.01) | 9.99% ( -0.01) |
| Over 1.5 | Under 1.5 | ||||||||
| 66.99% ( 0.03) | 33% ( -0.02) |
| Vitesse Goals |
| Over 0.5 | Under 0.5 |
| 70.54% ( 0.08) | 29.45% ( -0.08) |
| Over 1.5 | Under 1.5 | ||||||||
| 34.54% ( 0.1) | 65.46% ( -0.1) |
| Score Analysis |
| Ajax | Draw | Vitesse |
| 2-1 @ 9.54% ( -0.01) 2-0 @ 7.81% ( -0.02)3-1 @ 7.33% ( -0)1-0 @ 6.78% ( -0.02)3-0 @ 5.99% ( -0.02)3-2 @ 4.48% ( 0.01)4-1 @ 4.22% ( 0)4-0 @ 3.45% ( -0.01)4-2 @ 2.58% ( 0.01)5-1 @ 1.94% ( 0)5-0 @ 1.59% ( -0)5-2 @ 1.19% ( 0)4-3 @ 1.05% ( 0)Other @ 3.65% Total : 61.6% | 1-1 @ 8.29% ( -0.01) 2-2 @ 5.83% ( 0.01)0-0 @ 2.94% ( -0.01)3-3 @ 1.83% ( 0.01)Other @ 0.36% Total : 19.25% | 1-2 @ 5.06% ( 0.01) 0-1 @ 3.6% ( -0.01)2-3 @ 2.38% ( 0.01)0-2 @ 2.2% ( 0)1-3 @ 2.06% ( 0.01)Other @ 3.86% Total : 19.15% |
| Team | P | W | D | L | F | A | GD | PTS | |
| 1 | PSV EindhovenPSV | 17 | 17 | 0 | 0 | 59 | 7 | 52 | 51 |
| 2 | Feyenoord | 17 | 12 | 3 | 2 | 50 | 16 | 34 | 39 |
| 3 | FC Twente | 17 | 11 | 4 | 2 | 36 | 20 | 16 | 37 |
| 4 | AZ AlkmaarAZ | 17 | 10 | 3 | 4 | 36 | 16 | 20 | 33 |
| 5 | Ajax | 17 | 8 | 4 | 5 | 38 | 32 | 6 | 28 |
| 6 | Sparta RotterdamSparta | 17 | 7 | 4 | 6 | 24 | 22 | 2 | 25 |
| 7 | Go Ahead Eagles | 17 | 6 | 5 | 6 | 28 | 26 | 2 | 23 |
| 8 | NECNijmegen | 17 | 5 | 7 | 5 | 33 | 30 | 3 | 22 |
| 9 | Heerenveen | 17 | 6 | 2 | 9 | 26 | 32 | -6 | 20 |
| 10 | PEC Zwolle | 17 | 5 | 4 | 8 | 25 | 30 | -5 | 19 |
| 11 | Fortuna SittardSittard | 17 | 5 | 4 | 8 | 17 | 30 | -13 | 19 |
| 12 | Almere CityAlmere City | 17 | 5 | 4 | 8 | 19 | 34 | -15 | 19 |
| 13 | FC UtrechtUtrecht | 17 | 4 | 6 | 7 | 17 | 26 | -9 | 18 |
| 14 | Heracles | 17 | 5 | 3 | 9 | 22 | 40 | -18 | 18 |
| 15 | SBV ExcelsiorExcelsior | 17 | 3 | 8 | 6 | 28 | 35 | -7 | 17 |
| 16 | RKC WaalwijkRKC Waalwijk | 17 | 4 | 2 | 11 | 16 | 30 | -14 | 14 |
| 17 | Vitesse | 17 | 3 | 3 | 11 | 12 | 37 | -25 | 12 |
| 18 | FC VolendamVolendam | 17 | 3 | 2 | 12 | 18 | 41 | -23 | 11 |
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