SM
Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a NEC win with a probability of 48.15%. A win for Vitesse had a probability of 28.6% and a draw had a probability of 23.2%.
The most likely scoreline for a NEC win was 2-1 with a probability of 9.41%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 1-0 (8.05%) and 2-0 (7.14%). The likeliest Vitesse win was 1-2 (7%), while for a drawn scoreline it was 1-1 (10.62%). The actual scoreline of 1-3 was predicted with a 3.1% likelihood.
| Result | ||
| NEC | Draw | Vitesse |
48.15% ( 1.23) | 23.24% ( -0.14) | 28.6% ( -1.09) |
| Both teams to score 60.82% ( -0.28) |
| Goals |
| Over 2.5 | Under 2.5 |
| 59.71% ( -0.04) | 40.29% ( 0.04) |
| Over 3.5 | Under 3.5 |
| 37.33% ( -0.04) | 62.66% ( 0.04) |
| NEC Goals |
| Over 0.5 | Under 0.5 |
| 83.01% ( 0.45) | 16.98% ( -0.45) |
| Over 1.5 | Under 1.5 | ||||||||
| 52.9% ( 0.8) | 47.09% ( -0.8) |
| Vitesse Goals |
| Over 0.5 | Under 0.5 |
| 73.26% ( -0.74) | 26.74% ( 0.74) |
| Over 1.5 | Under 1.5 | ||||||||
| 37.99% ( -0.99) | 62.01% ( 0.99) |
| Score Analysis |
| NEC | Draw | Vitesse |
| 2-1 @ 9.41% ( 0.1) 1-0 @ 8.05% ( 0.13)2-0 @ 7.14% ( 0.22)3-1 @ 5.56% ( 0.14)3-0 @ 4.22% ( 0.19)3-2 @ 3.67% ( 0.02)4-1 @ 2.47% ( 0.1)4-0 @ 1.87% ( 0.11)4-2 @ 1.63% ( 0.03)Other @ 4.13% Total : 48.15% | 1-1 @ 10.62% ( -0.04) 2-2 @ 6.21% ( -0.07)0-0 @ 4.54% ( 0.01)3-3 @ 1.61% ( -0.03)Other @ 0.26% Total : 23.24% | 1-2 @ 7% ( -0.18) 0-1 @ 5.99% ( -0.12)0-2 @ 3.95% ( -0.16)1-3 @ 3.08% ( -0.15)2-3 @ 2.73% ( -0.09)0-3 @ 1.74% ( -0.11)1-4 @ 1.02% ( -0.07)Other @ 3.1% Total : 28.61% |
| Team | P | W | D | L | F | A | GD | PTS | |
| 1 | PSV EindhovenPSV | 13 | 13 | 0 | 0 | 48 | 5 | 43 | 39 |
| 2 | Feyenoord | 13 | 10 | 2 | 1 | 40 | 11 | 29 | 32 |
| 3 | AZ AlkmaarAZ | 12 | 9 | 2 | 1 | 29 | 6 | 23 | 29 |
| 4 | FC Twente | 13 | 8 | 3 | 2 | 25 | 14 | 11 | 27 |
| 5 | Go Ahead Eagles | 13 | 6 | 4 | 3 | 24 | 17 | 7 | 22 |
| 6 | Sparta RotterdamSparta | 14 | 6 | 3 | 5 | 19 | 18 | 1 | 21 |
| 7 | Heerenveen | 14 | 6 | 1 | 7 | 23 | 26 | -3 | 19 |
| 8 | PEC Zwolle | 14 | 5 | 2 | 7 | 20 | 23 | -3 | 17 |
| 9 | SBV ExcelsiorExcelsior | 14 | 3 | 7 | 4 | 24 | 27 | -3 | 16 |
| 10 | Fortuna SittardSittard | 14 | 4 | 4 | 6 | 15 | 24 | -9 | 16 |
| 11 | Ajax | 12 | 4 | 3 | 5 | 26 | 24 | 2 | 15 |
| 12 | Heracles | 14 | 4 | 3 | 7 | 20 | 33 | -13 | 15 |
| 13 | RKC WaalwijkRKC Waalwijk | 13 | 4 | 1 | 8 | 12 | 23 | -11 | 13 |
| 14 | Almere CityAlmere City | 14 | 3 | 4 | 7 | 12 | 30 | -18 | 13 |
| 15 | NECNijmegen | 12 | 2 | 6 | 4 | 21 | 23 | -2 | 12 |
| 16 | FC UtrechtUtrecht | 13 | 3 | 3 | 7 | 13 | 24 | -11 | 12 |
| 17 | FC VolendamVolendam | 14 | 2 | 2 | 10 | 15 | 36 | -21 | 8 |
| 18 | Vitesse | 14 | 2 | 2 | 10 | 10 | 32 | -22 | 8 |
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