SM
Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Willem II win with a probability of 62.2%. A draw had a probability of 21% and a win for NAC Breda had a probability of 16.75%.
The most likely scoreline for a Willem II win was 1-0 with a probability of 10.81%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 2-0 (10.75%) and 2-1 (9.93%). The likeliest drawn scoreline was 1-1 (9.98%), while for a NAC Breda win it was 0-1 (5.02%). The actual scoreline of 1-4 was predicted with a 0.3% likelihood.
| Result | ||
| Willem II | Draw | NAC Breda |
62.2% ( 0.92) | 21.04% ( -0.3) | 16.75% ( -0.62) |
| Both teams to score 52.02% ( -0.3) |
| Goals |
| Over 2.5 | Under 2.5 |
| 55.69% ( 0.24) | 44.31% ( -0.25) |
| Over 3.5 | Under 3.5 |
| 33.31% ( 0.24) | 66.68% ( -0.24) |
| Willem II Goals |
| Over 0.5 | Under 0.5 |
| 86.32% ( 0.36) | 13.68% ( -0.36) |
| Over 1.5 | Under 1.5 | ||||||||
| 59.11% ( 0.71) | 40.88% ( -0.71) |
| NAC Breda Goals |
| Over 0.5 | Under 0.5 |
| 60.26% ( -0.6) | 39.73% ( 0.6) |
| Over 1.5 | Under 1.5 | ||||||||
| 23.59% ( -0.56) | 76.4% ( 0.56) |
| Score Analysis |
| Willem II | Draw | NAC Breda |
| 1-0 @ 10.81% ( 0.03) 2-0 @ 10.75% ( 0.17)2-1 @ 9.93% ( -0.01)3-0 @ 7.13% ( 0.2)3-1 @ 6.58% ( 0.08)4-0 @ 3.55% ( 0.15)4-1 @ 3.27% ( 0.08)3-2 @ 3.04% ( -0.01)4-2 @ 1.51% ( 0.01)5-0 @ 1.41% ( 0.08)5-1 @ 1.3% ( 0.05)Other @ 2.91% Total : 62.2% | 1-1 @ 9.98% ( -0.13) 0-0 @ 5.43% ( -0.06)2-2 @ 4.58% ( -0.08)3-3 @ 0.94% ( -0.02)Other @ 0.12% Total : 21.04% | 0-1 @ 5.02% ( -0.14) 1-2 @ 4.61% ( -0.14)0-2 @ 2.32% ( -0.1)1-3 @ 1.42% ( -0.07)2-3 @ 1.41% ( -0.05)Other @ 1.99% Total : 16.75% |
| Team | P | W | D | L | F | A | GD | PTS | |
| 1 | Roda JC | 7 | 6 | 0 | 1 | 19 | 4 | 15 | 18 |
| 2 | VVV-VenloVVV-Venlo | 7 | 4 | 2 | 1 | 14 | 8 | 6 | 14 |
| 3 | Groningen | 7 | 4 | 1 | 2 | 12 | 4 | 8 | 13 |
| 4 | Cambuur | 7 | 4 | 1 | 2 | 16 | 12 | 4 | 13 |
| 5 | De GraafschapDe Graafschap | 7 | 4 | 1 | 2 | 9 | 7 | 2 | 13 |
| 6 | EmmenEmmen | 7 | 3 | 3 | 1 | 15 | 12 | 3 | 12 |
| 7 | ADO Den HaagADO Den Haag | 7 | 3 | 3 | 1 | 9 | 7 | 2 | 12 |
| 8 | Jong AZJong AZ | 7 | 3 | 2 | 2 | 11 | 9 | 2 | 11 |
| 9 | FC EindhovenFC Eindhoven | 6 | 2 | 4 | 0 | 6 | 3 | 3 | 10 |
| 10 | Dordrecht | 7 | 2 | 4 | 1 | 12 | 11 | 1 | 10 |
| 11 | Jong FC UtrechtJong Utrecht | 7 | 3 | 1 | 3 | 9 | 12 | -3 | 10 |
| 12 | Jong PSVJong PSV | 7 | 3 | 1 | 3 | 7 | 13 | -6 | 10 |
| 13 | Willem II | 6 | 2 | 2 | 2 | 6 | 7 | -1 | 8 |
| 14 | MVV MaastrichtMVV | 6 | 2 | 1 | 3 | 11 | 11 | 0 | 7 |
| 15 | NAC BredaNAC Breda | 7 | 2 | 1 | 4 | 11 | 15 | -4 | 7 |
| 16 | Helmond SportHelmond | 7 | 2 | 1 | 4 | 8 | 12 | -4 | 7 |
| 17 | Den BoschDen Bosch | 7 | 2 | 0 | 5 | 8 | 14 | -6 | 6 |
| 18 | TOP OssOss | 6 | 1 | 1 | 4 | 5 | 8 | -3 | 4 |
| 19 | Jong AjaxJong Ajax | 7 | 0 | 2 | 5 | 11 | 21 | -10 | 2 |
| 20 | TelstarTelstar | 7 | 0 | 1 | 6 | 5 | 14 | -9 | 1 |
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