SM
Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Jong AZ win with a probability of 45.2%. A win for MVV Maastricht had a probability of 30.99% and a draw had a probability of 23.8%.
The most likely scoreline for a Jong AZ win was 1-2 with a probability of 9.2%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 0-1 (8.09%) and 0-2 (6.79%). The likeliest MVV Maastricht win was 2-1 (7.41%), while for a drawn scoreline it was 1-1 (10.94%). The actual scoreline of 4-0 was predicted with a 0.7% likelihood.
| Result | ||
| MVV Maastricht | Draw | Jong AZ |
30.99% ( -0.04) | 23.81% ( -0) | 45.2% ( 0.05) |
| Both teams to score 60.35% ( -0.01) |
| Goals |
| Over 2.5 | Under 2.5 |
| 58.43% ( -0) | 41.57% ( 0) |
| Over 3.5 | Under 3.5 |
| 36.03% ( -0) | 63.97% ( 0) |
| MVV Maastricht Goals |
| Over 0.5 | Under 0.5 |
| 74.17% ( -0.03) | 25.82% ( 0.03) |
| Over 1.5 | Under 1.5 | ||||||||
| 39.21% ( -0.04) | 60.78% ( 0.04) |
| Jong AZ Goals |
| Over 0.5 | Under 0.5 |
| 81.35% ( 0.02) | 18.64% ( -0.02) |
| Over 1.5 | Under 1.5 | ||||||||
| 50.04% ( 0.03) | 49.96% ( -0.03) |
| Score Analysis |
| MVV Maastricht | Draw | Jong AZ |
| 2-1 @ 7.41% ( -0.01) 1-0 @ 6.52% ( -0)2-0 @ 4.41% ( -0.01)3-1 @ 3.35% ( -0.01)3-2 @ 2.81% ( -0)3-0 @ 1.99% ( -0)4-1 @ 1.13% ( -0)4-2 @ 0.95% ( -0)Other @ 2.43% Total : 31% | 1-1 @ 10.94% 2-2 @ 6.23% ( -0)0-0 @ 4.81% ( 0)3-3 @ 1.57% ( -0)Other @ 0.25% Total : 23.8% | 1-2 @ 9.2% ( 0) 0-1 @ 8.09% ( 0.01)0-2 @ 6.79% ( 0.01)1-3 @ 5.15% ( 0)0-3 @ 3.8% ( 0.01)2-3 @ 3.49% ( 0)1-4 @ 2.16% ( 0)0-4 @ 1.6% ( 0)2-4 @ 1.46% ( 0)Other @ 3.46% Total : 45.2% |
| Team | P | W | D | L | F | A | GD | PTS | |
| 1 | Willem II | 21 | 15 | 3 | 3 | 46 | 18 | 28 | 48 |
| 2 | ADO Den HaagADO Den Haag | 21 | 11 | 7 | 3 | 43 | 26 | 17 | 40 |
| 3 | Roda JC | 20 | 11 | 6 | 3 | 34 | 16 | 18 | 39 |
| 4 | Dordrecht | 21 | 9 | 9 | 3 | 43 | 29 | 14 | 36 |
| 5 | Cambuur | 21 | 10 | 4 | 7 | 51 | 41 | 10 | 34 |
| 6 | De GraafschapDe Graafschap | 20 | 10 | 3 | 7 | 29 | 28 | 1 | 33 |
| 7 | Groningen | 20 | 9 | 5 | 6 | 32 | 20 | 12 | 32 |
| 8 | EmmenEmmen | 20 | 9 | 5 | 6 | 30 | 27 | 3 | 32 |
| 9 | NAC BredaNAC Breda | 20 | 9 | 4 | 7 | 37 | 30 | 7 | 31 |
| 10 | FC EindhovenFC Eindhoven | 20 | 7 | 9 | 4 | 29 | 24 | 5 | 30 |
| 11 | VVV-VenloVVV-Venlo | 20 | 8 | 5 | 7 | 32 | 32 | 0 | 29 |
| 12 | Jong AZJong AZ | 21 | 8 | 5 | 8 | 29 | 33 | -4 | 29 |
| 13 | MVV MaastrichtMVV | 21 | 7 | 5 | 9 | 31 | 34 | -3 | 26 |
| 14 | Helmond SportHelmond | 21 | 7 | 4 | 10 | 32 | 36 | -4 | 25 |
| 15 | Jong AjaxJong Ajax | 20 | 5 | 7 | 8 | 33 | 40 | -7 | 22 |
| 16 | Jong PSVJong PSV | 19 | 5 | 3 | 11 | 25 | 41 | -16 | 18 |
| 17 | Jong FC UtrechtJong Utrecht | 20 | 4 | 6 | 10 | 19 | 38 | -19 | 18 |
| 18 | Den BoschDen Bosch | 20 | 4 | 3 | 13 | 22 | 40 | -18 | 15 |
| 19 | TelstarTelstar | 21 | 4 | 3 | 14 | 20 | 38 | -18 | 15 |
| 20 | TOP OssOss | 21 | 3 | 2 | 16 | 12 | 38 | -26 | 11 |
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