SM
Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a NAC Breda win with a probability of 48.94%. A win for MVV Maastricht had a probability of 27.51% and a draw had a probability of 23.5%.
The most likely scoreline for a NAC Breda win was 1-2 with a probability of 9.52%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 0-1 (8.73%) and 0-2 (7.61%). The likeliest MVV Maastricht win was 2-1 (6.83%), while for a drawn scoreline it was 1-1 (10.92%). The actual scoreline of 1-4 was predicted with a 2.4% likelihood. Our data analysis correctly predicted that NAC Breda would win this match.
| Result | ||
| MVV Maastricht | Draw | NAC Breda |
27.51% ( -0.23) | 23.54% ( -0.02) | 48.94% ( 0.25) |
| Both teams to score 58.88% ( -0.12) |
| Goals |
| Over 2.5 | Under 2.5 |
| 57.53% ( -0.07) | 42.46% ( 0.07) |
| Over 3.5 | Under 3.5 |
| 35.13% ( -0.07) | 64.87% ( 0.07) |
| MVV Maastricht Goals |
| Over 0.5 | Under 0.5 |
| 71.37% ( -0.21) | 28.62% ( 0.2) |
| Over 1.5 | Under 1.5 | ||||||||
| 35.57% ( -0.26) | 64.43% ( 0.26) |
| NAC Breda Goals |
| Over 0.5 | Under 0.5 |
| 82.49% ( 0.07) | 17.51% ( -0.07) |
| Over 1.5 | Under 1.5 | ||||||||
| 51.98% ( 0.12) | 48.01% ( -0.12) |
| Score Analysis |
| MVV Maastricht | Draw | NAC Breda |
| 2-1 @ 6.83% ( -0.04) 1-0 @ 6.27% ( -0.01)2-0 @ 3.92% ( -0.03)3-1 @ 2.85% ( -0.03)3-2 @ 2.48% ( -0.02)3-0 @ 1.64% ( -0.02)Other @ 3.52% Total : 27.51% | 1-1 @ 10.92% 2-2 @ 5.95% ( -0.02)0-0 @ 5.01% ( 0.02)3-3 @ 1.44% ( -0.01)Other @ 0.21% Total : 23.54% | 1-2 @ 9.52% ( 0.02) 0-1 @ 8.73% ( 0.05)0-2 @ 7.61% ( 0.06)1-3 @ 5.53% ( 0.02)0-3 @ 4.42% ( 0.04)2-3 @ 3.46% ( -0)1-4 @ 2.41% ( 0.02)0-4 @ 1.93% ( 0.02)2-4 @ 1.51% ( 0)Other @ 3.84% Total : 48.95% |
| Team | P | W | D | L | F | A | GD | PTS | |
| 1 | Willem II | 21 | 15 | 3 | 3 | 46 | 18 | 28 | 48 |
| 2 | ADO Den HaagADO Den Haag | 21 | 11 | 7 | 3 | 43 | 26 | 17 | 40 |
| 3 | Roda JC | 20 | 11 | 6 | 3 | 34 | 16 | 18 | 39 |
| 4 | Dordrecht | 21 | 9 | 9 | 3 | 43 | 29 | 14 | 36 |
| 5 | Cambuur | 21 | 10 | 4 | 7 | 51 | 41 | 10 | 34 |
| 6 | NAC BredaNAC Breda | 21 | 10 | 4 | 7 | 40 | 32 | 8 | 34 |
| 7 | De GraafschapDe Graafschap | 20 | 10 | 3 | 7 | 29 | 28 | 1 | 33 |
| 8 | Groningen | 20 | 9 | 5 | 6 | 32 | 20 | 12 | 32 |
| 9 | EmmenEmmen | 21 | 9 | 5 | 7 | 32 | 30 | 2 | 32 |
| 10 | FC EindhovenFC Eindhoven | 20 | 7 | 9 | 4 | 29 | 24 | 5 | 30 |
| 11 | VVV-VenloVVV-Venlo | 20 | 8 | 5 | 7 | 32 | 32 | 0 | 29 |
| 12 | Jong AZJong AZ | 21 | 8 | 5 | 8 | 29 | 33 | -4 | 29 |
| 13 | MVV MaastrichtMVV | 21 | 7 | 5 | 9 | 31 | 34 | -3 | 26 |
| 14 | Helmond SportHelmond | 21 | 7 | 4 | 10 | 32 | 36 | -4 | 25 |
| 15 | Jong AjaxJong Ajax | 20 | 5 | 7 | 8 | 33 | 40 | -7 | 22 |
| 16 | Jong PSVJong PSV | 19 | 5 | 3 | 11 | 25 | 41 | -16 | 18 |
| 17 | Jong FC UtrechtJong Utrecht | 20 | 4 | 6 | 10 | 19 | 38 | -19 | 18 |
| 18 | Den BoschDen Bosch | 20 | 4 | 3 | 13 | 22 | 40 | -18 | 15 |
| 19 | TelstarTelstar | 21 | 4 | 3 | 14 | 20 | 38 | -18 | 15 |
| 20 | TOP OssOss | 21 | 3 | 2 | 16 | 12 | 38 | -26 | 11 |
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