SM
Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Heracles win with a probability of 61.76%. A draw had a probability of 19.9% and a win for Jong FC Utrecht had a probability of 18.37%.
The most likely scoreline for a Heracles win was 2-1 with a probability of 9.82%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 2-0 (8.84%) and 1-0 (8.09%). The likeliest drawn scoreline was 1-1 (8.99%), while for a Jong FC Utrecht win it was 1-2 (5%). The actual scoreline of 6-1 was predicted with a 0.6% likelihood. Our data analysis correctly predicted that Heracles would win this match.
| Result | ||
| Heracles | Draw | Jong FC Utrecht |
61.76% ( -0.4) | 19.87% ( 0.09) | 18.37% ( 0.3) |
| Both teams to score 59.54% ( 0.26) |
| Goals |
| Over 2.5 | Under 2.5 |
| 63.98% ( 0.07) | 36.02% ( -0.07) |
| Over 3.5 | Under 3.5 |
| 41.88% ( 0.08) | 58.12% ( -0.07) |
| Heracles Goals |
| Over 0.5 | Under 0.5 |
| 88.75% ( -0.08) | 11.25% ( 0.08) |
| Over 1.5 | Under 1.5 | ||||||||
| 64.17% ( -0.19) | 35.83% ( 0.18) |
| Jong FC Utrecht Goals |
| Over 0.5 | Under 0.5 |
| 67.09% ( 0.36) | 32.91% ( -0.36) |
| Over 1.5 | Under 1.5 | ||||||||
| 30.51% ( 0.4) | 69.49% ( -0.4) |
| Score Analysis |
| Heracles | Draw | Jong FC Utrecht |
| 2-1 @ 9.82% ( -0) 2-0 @ 8.84% ( -0.09)1-0 @ 8.09% ( -0.05)3-1 @ 7.15% ( -0.03)3-0 @ 6.44% ( -0.09)3-2 @ 3.97% ( 0.02)4-1 @ 3.91% ( -0.03)4-0 @ 3.51% ( -0.06)4-2 @ 2.17% ( 0)5-1 @ 1.71% ( -0.02)5-0 @ 1.54% ( -0.03)5-2 @ 0.95% ( -0)Other @ 3.67% Total : 61.76% | 1-1 @ 8.99% ( 0.03) 2-2 @ 5.46% ( 0.05)0-0 @ 3.7% ( -0.01)3-3 @ 1.47% ( 0.02)Other @ 0.25% Total : 19.87% | 1-2 @ 5% ( 0.06) 0-1 @ 4.12% ( 0.03)0-2 @ 2.29% ( 0.04)2-3 @ 2.02% ( 0.04)1-3 @ 1.85% ( 0.04)Other @ 3.1% Total : 18.37% |
| Team | P | W | D | L | F | A | GD | PTS | |
| 1 | PEC Zwolle | 29 | 21 | 3 | 5 | 79 | 32 | 47 | 66 |
| 2 | Heracles | 28 | 19 | 3 | 6 | 78 | 32 | 46 | 60 |
| 3 | VVV-VenloVVV-Venlo | 29 | 15 | 6 | 8 | 47 | 38 | 9 | 51 |
| 4 | Almere CityAlmere City | 28 | 15 | 4 | 9 | 40 | 32 | 8 | 49 |
| 5 | FC EindhovenFC Eindhoven | 29 | 13 | 7 | 9 | 43 | 41 | 2 | 46 |
| 6 | Willem II | 28 | 12 | 8 | 8 | 46 | 33 | 13 | 44 |
| 7 | NAC BredaNAC Breda | 29 | 13 | 4 | 12 | 49 | 52 | -3 | 43 |
| 8 | MVV MaastrichtMVV | 28 | 12 | 5 | 11 | 52 | 52 | 0 | 41 |
| 9 | Roda JC | 29 | 12 | 4 | 13 | 40 | 39 | 1 | 40 |
| 10 | Jong AZJong AZ | 29 | 11 | 7 | 11 | 48 | 48 | 0 | 40 |
| 11 | De GraafschapDe Graafschap | 29 | 11 | 6 | 12 | 46 | 39 | 7 | 39 |
| 12 | ADO Den HaagADO Den Haag | 29 | 10 | 9 | 10 | 35 | 41 | -6 | 39 |
| 13 | TelstarTelstar | 28 | 10 | 9 | 9 | 28 | 39 | -11 | 39 |
| 14 | Jong PSVJong PSV | 29 | 9 | 8 | 12 | 44 | 48 | -4 | 35 |
| 15 | Helmond SportHelmond | 28 | 9 | 5 | 14 | 26 | 43 | -17 | 32 |
| 16 | Jong AjaxJong Ajax | 29 | 7 | 10 | 12 | 51 | 56 | -5 | 31 |
| 17 | TOP OssOss | 28 | 9 | 3 | 16 | 33 | 49 | -16 | 30 |
| 18 | Den BoschDen Bosch | 28 | 8 | 3 | 17 | 37 | 69 | -32 | 27 |
| 19 | Dordrecht | 28 | 7 | 5 | 16 | 31 | 48 | -17 | 26 |
| 20 | Jong FC UtrechtJong Utrecht | 28 | 5 | 5 | 18 | 27 | 49 | -22 | 20 |
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