SM
Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Burnley win with a probability of 59.78%. A draw had a probability of 22% and a win for Swansea City had a probability of 18.22%.
The most likely scoreline for a Burnley win was 1-0 with a probability of 11.09%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 2-0 (10.52%) and 2-1 (9.91%). The likeliest drawn scoreline was 1-1 (10.44%), while for a Swansea City win it was 0-1 (5.5%). The actual scoreline of 4-0 was predicted with a 3.2% likelihood. Our data analysis correctly predicted that Burnley would win this match.
| Result | ||
| Burnley | Draw | Swansea City |
59.78% ( 0.1) | 21.99% ( -0.06) | 18.22% ( -0.04) |
| Both teams to score 51.86% ( 0.13) |
| Goals |
| Over 2.5 | Under 2.5 |
| 54% ( 0.21) | 46% ( -0.21) |
| Over 3.5 | Under 3.5 |
| 31.69% ( 0.2) | 68.3% ( -0.2) |
| Burnley Goals |
| Over 0.5 | Under 0.5 |
| 85.01% ( 0.1) | 14.98% ( -0.1) |
| Over 1.5 | Under 1.5 | ||||||||
| 56.57% ( 0.2) | 43.42% ( -0.2) |
| Swansea City Goals |
| Over 0.5 | Under 0.5 |
| 60.99% ( 0.08) | 39% ( -0.08) |
| Over 1.5 | Under 1.5 | ||||||||
| 24.27% ( 0.08) | 75.72% ( -0.08) |
| Score Analysis |
| Burnley | Draw | Swansea City |
| 1-0 @ 11.09% ( -0.06) 2-0 @ 10.52% ( -0.02)2-1 @ 9.91% ( 0.01)3-0 @ 6.66% ( 0.01)3-1 @ 6.27% ( 0.03)4-0 @ 3.16% ( 0.02)4-1 @ 2.98% ( 0.02)3-2 @ 2.95% ( 0.02)4-2 @ 1.4% ( 0.01)5-0 @ 1.2% ( 0.01)5-1 @ 1.13% ( 0.01)Other @ 2.49% Total : 59.77% | 1-1 @ 10.44% ( -0.03) 0-0 @ 5.84% ( -0.05)2-2 @ 4.67% ( 0.01)3-3 @ 0.93% ( 0.01)Other @ 0.11% Total : 21.99% | 0-1 @ 5.5% ( -0.04) 1-2 @ 4.92% ( -0)0-2 @ 2.59% ( -0.01)1-3 @ 1.54% ( 0)2-3 @ 1.47% ( 0.01)Other @ 2.2% Total : 18.22% |
| Team | P | W | D | L | F | A | GD | PTS | |
| C | Burnley | 46 | 29 | 14 | 3 | 87 | 35 | 52 | 101 |
| P | Sheffield UnitedSheff Utd | 46 | 28 | 7 | 11 | 73 | 39 | 34 | 91 |
| P | Luton TownLuton | 46 | 21 | 17 | 8 | 57 | 39 | 18 | 80 |
| 4 | Middlesbrough | 46 | 22 | 9 | 15 | 84 | 56 | 28 | 75 |
| 5 | Coventry CityCoventry | 46 | 18 | 16 | 12 | 58 | 46 | 12 | 70 |
| 6 | Sunderland | 46 | 18 | 15 | 13 | 68 | 55 | 13 | 69 |
| 7 | Blackburn RoversBlackburn | 46 | 20 | 9 | 17 | 52 | 54 | -2 | 69 |
| 8 | Millwall | 46 | 19 | 11 | 16 | 57 | 50 | 7 | 68 |
| 9 | West Bromwich AlbionWest Brom | 46 | 18 | 12 | 16 | 59 | 53 | 6 | 66 |
| 10 | Swansea CitySwansea | 46 | 18 | 12 | 16 | 68 | 64 | 4 | 66 |
| 11 | Watford | 46 | 16 | 15 | 15 | 56 | 53 | 3 | 63 |
| 12 | Preston North EndPreston | 46 | 17 | 12 | 17 | 45 | 59 | -14 | 63 |
| 13 | Norwich CityNorwich | 46 | 17 | 11 | 18 | 57 | 54 | 3 | 62 |
| 14 | Bristol City | 46 | 15 | 14 | 17 | 55 | 56 | -1 | 59 |
| 15 | Hull City | 46 | 14 | 16 | 16 | 51 | 61 | -10 | 58 |
| 16 | Stoke CityStoke | 46 | 14 | 11 | 21 | 55 | 54 | 1 | 53 |
| 17 | Birmingham CityBirmingham | 46 | 14 | 11 | 21 | 47 | 58 | -11 | 53 |
| 18 | Huddersfield TownHuddersfield | 46 | 14 | 11 | 21 | 47 | 62 | -15 | 53 |
| 19 | Rotherham UnitedRotherham | 46 | 11 | 17 | 18 | 49 | 60 | -11 | 50 |
| 20 | Queens Park RangersQPR | 46 | 13 | 11 | 22 | 44 | 71 | -27 | 50 |
| 21 | Cardiff CityCardiff | 46 | 13 | 10 | 23 | 41 | 58 | -17 | 49 |
| R | Reading | 46 | 13 | 11 | 22 | 46 | 68 | -22 | 44 |
| R | Blackpool | 46 | 11 | 11 | 24 | 48 | 72 | -24 | 44 |
| R | Wigan AthleticWigan | 46 | 10 | 15 | 21 | 38 | 65 | -27 | 42 |
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