SM
Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Union Berlin win with a probability of 44.57%. A win for Werder Bremen had a probability of 30.35% and a draw had a probability of 25.1%.
The most likely scoreline for a Union Berlin win was 0-1 with a probability of 9.66%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 1-2 (9.15%) and 0-2 (7.45%). The likeliest Werder Bremen win was 1-0 (7.69%), while for a drawn scoreline it was 1-1 (11.86%). The actual scoreline of 1-2 was predicted with a 9.1% likelihood. Our team at Sports Mole correctly predicted a 1-2 win for Union Berlin in this match and our data analysis correctly predicted the win for Union Berlin.
| Result | ||
| Werder Bremen | Draw | Union Berlin |
30.35% ( -0.75) | 25.08% ( 0.03) | 44.57% ( 0.71) |
| Both teams to score 55.59% ( -0.49) |
| Goals |
| Over 2.5 | Under 2.5 |
| 52.35% ( -0.47) | 47.65% ( 0.46) |
| Over 3.5 | Under 3.5 |
| 30.15% ( -0.43) | 69.85% ( 0.43) |
| Werder Bremen Goals |
| Over 0.5 | Under 0.5 |
| 70.73% ( -0.74) | 29.27% ( 0.74) |
| Over 1.5 | Under 1.5 | ||||||||
| 34.77% ( -0.92) | 65.23% ( 0.91) |
| Union Berlin Goals |
| Over 0.5 | Under 0.5 |
| 78.6% ( 0.12) | 21.4% ( -0.13) |
| Over 1.5 | Under 1.5 | ||||||||
| 45.61% ( 0.19) | 54.39% ( -0.2) |
| Score Analysis |
| Werder Bremen | Draw | Union Berlin |
| 1-0 @ 7.69% ( -0.01) 2-1 @ 7.29% ( -0.13)2-0 @ 4.73% ( -0.1)3-1 @ 2.99% ( -0.12)3-2 @ 2.3% ( -0.08)3-0 @ 1.94% ( -0.08)4-1 @ 0.92% ( -0.05)Other @ 2.5% Total : 30.35% | 1-1 @ 11.86% ( 0.03) 0-0 @ 6.26% ( 0.12)2-2 @ 5.62% ( -0.08)3-3 @ 1.18% ( -0.04)Other @ 0.15% Total : 25.08% | 0-1 @ 9.66% ( 0.22) 1-2 @ 9.15% ( 0.06)0-2 @ 7.45% ( 0.2)1-3 @ 4.7% ( 0.05)0-3 @ 3.83% ( 0.12)2-3 @ 2.89% ( -0.03)1-4 @ 1.81% ( 0.03)0-4 @ 1.48% ( 0.05)2-4 @ 1.11% ( -0.01)Other @ 2.5% Total : 44.57% |
| Team | P | W | D | L | F | A | GD | PTS | |
| C | Bayern MunichBayern | 34 | 21 | 8 | 5 | 92 | 38 | 54 | 71 |
| 2 | Borussia DortmundDortmund | 34 | 22 | 5 | 7 | 83 | 44 | 39 | 71 |
| 3 | RB Leipzig | 34 | 20 | 6 | 8 | 64 | 41 | 23 | 66 |
| 4 | Union BerlinUnion Berlin | 34 | 18 | 8 | 8 | 51 | 38 | 13 | 62 |
| 5 | Freiburg | 34 | 17 | 8 | 9 | 51 | 44 | 7 | 59 |
| 6 | Bayer LeverkusenB. Leverkusen | 34 | 14 | 8 | 12 | 57 | 49 | 8 | 50 |
| 7 | Eintracht FrankfurtFrankfurt | 34 | 13 | 11 | 10 | 58 | 52 | 6 | 50 |
| 8 | Wolfsburg | 34 | 13 | 10 | 11 | 57 | 48 | 9 | 49 |
| 9 | Mainz 05Mainz | 34 | 12 | 10 | 12 | 54 | 55 | -1 | 46 |
| 10 | Borussia MonchengladbachBorussia M'bach | 34 | 11 | 10 | 13 | 52 | 55 | -3 | 43 |
| 11 | FC Koln | 34 | 10 | 12 | 12 | 49 | 54 | -5 | 42 |
| 12 | Hoffenheim | 34 | 10 | 6 | 18 | 48 | 57 | -9 | 36 |
| 13 | Werder Bremen | 34 | 10 | 6 | 18 | 51 | 64 | -13 | 36 |
| 14 | VfL BochumVfL Bochum | 34 | 10 | 5 | 19 | 40 | 72 | -32 | 35 |
| 15 | Augsburg | 34 | 9 | 7 | 18 | 42 | 63 | -21 | 34 |
| 16 | Stuttgart | 34 | 7 | 12 | 15 | 45 | 57 | -12 | 33 |
| R | Schalke 04Schalke | 34 | 7 | 10 | 17 | 35 | 71 | -36 | 31 |
| R | Hertha Berlin | 34 | 7 | 8 | 19 | 42 | 69 | -27 | 29 |
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