SM
Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Union Berlin win with a probability of 56.95%. A draw had a probability of 23.6% and a win for Mainz 05 had a probability of 19.44%.
The most likely scoreline for a Union Berlin win was 1-0 with a probability of 12.41%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 2-0 (10.75%) and 2-1 (9.72%). The likeliest drawn scoreline was 1-1 (11.21%), while for a Mainz 05 win it was 0-1 (6.47%). The actual scoreline of 2-1 was predicted with a 9.7% likelihood. Our team at Sports Mole correctly predicted a 2-1 win for Union Berlin in this match and our data analysis correctly predicted the win for Union Berlin.
| Result | ||
| Union Berlin | Draw | Mainz 05 |
56.95% ( -0.78) | 23.61% ( 0.38) | 19.44% ( 0.4) |
| Both teams to score 48.96% ( -0.49) |
| Goals |
| Over 2.5 | Under 2.5 |
| 49.05% ( -1) | 50.95% ( 1) |
| Over 3.5 | Under 3.5 |
| 27.18% ( -0.88) | 72.82% ( 0.89) |
| Union Berlin Goals |
| Over 0.5 | Under 0.5 |
| 82.31% ( -0.64) | 17.69% ( 0.64) |
| Over 1.5 | Under 1.5 | ||||||||
| 51.67% ( -1.12) | 48.32% ( 1.13) |
| Mainz 05 Goals |
| Over 0.5 | Under 0.5 |
| 59.48% ( -0.13) | 40.52% ( 0.14) |
| Over 1.5 | Under 1.5 | ||||||||
| 22.88% ( -0.12) | 77.12% ( 0.12) |
| Score Analysis |
| Union Berlin | Draw | Mainz 05 |
| 1-0 @ 12.41% ( 0.24) 2-0 @ 10.75% ( -0.02)2-1 @ 9.72% ( -0.05)3-0 @ 6.21% ( -0.15)3-1 @ 5.61% ( -0.15)4-0 @ 2.69% ( -0.12)3-2 @ 2.53% ( -0.08)4-1 @ 2.43% ( -0.12)4-2 @ 1.1% ( -0.06)5-0 @ 0.93% ( -0.06)Other @ 2.56% Total : 56.94% | 1-1 @ 11.21% ( 0.17) 0-0 @ 7.17% ( 0.28)2-2 @ 4.39% ( -0.04)Other @ 0.84% Total : 23.61% | 0-1 @ 6.47% ( 0.23) 1-2 @ 5.07% ( 0.06)0-2 @ 2.93% ( 0.09)1-3 @ 1.53% ( 0.01)2-3 @ 1.32% ( -0.02)Other @ 2.13% Total : 19.44% |
| Team | P | W | D | L | F | A | GD | PTS | |
| C | Bayern MunichBayern | 34 | 21 | 8 | 5 | 92 | 38 | 54 | 71 |
| 2 | Borussia DortmundDortmund | 34 | 22 | 5 | 7 | 83 | 44 | 39 | 71 |
| 3 | RB Leipzig | 34 | 20 | 6 | 8 | 64 | 41 | 23 | 66 |
| 4 | Union BerlinUnion Berlin | 34 | 18 | 8 | 8 | 51 | 38 | 13 | 62 |
| 5 | Freiburg | 34 | 17 | 8 | 9 | 51 | 44 | 7 | 59 |
| 6 | Bayer LeverkusenB. Leverkusen | 34 | 14 | 8 | 12 | 57 | 49 | 8 | 50 |
| 7 | Eintracht FrankfurtFrankfurt | 34 | 13 | 11 | 10 | 58 | 52 | 6 | 50 |
| 8 | Wolfsburg | 34 | 13 | 10 | 11 | 57 | 48 | 9 | 49 |
| 9 | Mainz 05Mainz | 34 | 12 | 10 | 12 | 54 | 55 | -1 | 46 |
| 10 | Borussia MonchengladbachBorussia M'bach | 34 | 11 | 10 | 13 | 52 | 55 | -3 | 43 |
| 11 | FC Koln | 34 | 10 | 12 | 12 | 49 | 54 | -5 | 42 |
| 12 | Hoffenheim | 34 | 10 | 6 | 18 | 48 | 57 | -9 | 36 |
| 13 | Werder Bremen | 34 | 10 | 6 | 18 | 51 | 64 | -13 | 36 |
| 14 | VfL BochumVfL Bochum | 34 | 10 | 5 | 19 | 40 | 72 | -32 | 35 |
| 15 | Augsburg | 34 | 9 | 7 | 18 | 42 | 63 | -21 | 34 |
| 16 | Stuttgart | 34 | 7 | 12 | 15 | 45 | 57 | -12 | 33 |
| R | Schalke 04Schalke | 34 | 7 | 10 | 17 | 35 | 71 | -36 | 31 |
| R | Hertha Berlin | 34 | 7 | 8 | 19 | 42 | 69 | -27 | 29 |
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