Data Analysis
Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Union Berlin win with a probability of 47.69%. A win for Mainz 05 had a probability of 27.6% and a draw had a probability of 24.7%.
The most likely scoreline for a Union Berlin win was 1-0 with a probability of 10.04%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 2-1 (9.41%) and 2-0 (8.08%). The likeliest Mainz 05 win was 0-1 (7.27%), while for a drawn scoreline it was 1-1 (11.69%). The actual scoreline of 4-0 was predicted with a 1.7% likelihood. Our data analysis correctly predicted that Union Berlin would win this match.
