SM
| Current League Standings | P | GD | PTS | |
| 3 | Atletico Mineiro | 10 | 3 | 16 |
| 4 | Athletico Paranaense | 10 | -1 | 16 |
| 5 | Sao Paulo | 10 | 4 | 15 |
| Current League Standings | P | GD | PTS | |
| 9 | America Mineiro | 10 | -1 | 14 |
| 10 | Santos | 10 | 4 | 13 |
| 11 | Bragantino | 10 | 1 | 13 |
Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Athletico Paranaense win with a probability of 57.95%. A draw had a probability of 24.8% and a win for Santos had a probability of 17.24%.
The most likely scoreline for an Athletico Paranaense win was 1-0 with a probability of 15.25%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 2-0 (12.26%) and 2-1 (9.16%). The likeliest drawn scoreline was 1-1 (11.4%), while for a Santos win it was 0-1 (7.09%). The actual scoreline of 2-2 was predicted with a 3.4% likelihood. Our team at Sports Mole correctly predicted a draw in this match.
| Result | ||
| Athletico Paranaense | Draw | Santos |
57.95% ( -1.82) | 24.81% ( 0.86) | 17.24% ( 0.96) |
| Both teams to score 42.08% ( -0.47) |
| Goals |
| Over 2.5 | Under 2.5 |
| 41.84% ( -1.64) | 58.16% ( 1.64) |
| Over 3.5 | Under 3.5 |
| 21.18% ( -1.3) | 78.81% ( 1.3) |
| Athletico Paranaense Goals |
| Over 0.5 | Under 0.5 |
| 79.96% ( -1.32) | 20.04% ( 1.33) |
| Over 1.5 | Under 1.5 |
| 47.75% ( -2.18) | 52.25% ( 2.18) |
| Santos Goals |
| Over 0.5 | Under 0.5 |
| 52.63% ( 0.28) | 47.37% ( -0.28) |
