SM
Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a San Lorenzo win with a probability of 36.51%. A win for Boca Juniors had a probability of 32.74% and a draw had a probability of 30.7%.
The most likely scoreline for a San Lorenzo win was 1-0 with a probability of 13.96%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 2-0 (7.26%) and 2-1 (7.03%). The likeliest Boca Juniors win was 0-1 (12.99%), while for a drawn scoreline it was 1-1 (13.51%). The actual scoreline of 1-0 was predicted with a 14% likelihood. Our data analysis correctly predicted a 1-0 win for San Lorenzo in this match.
| Result | ||
| San Lorenzo | Draw | Boca Juniors |
36.51% ( 0.06) | 30.75% ( 0.04) | 32.74% ( -0.1) |
| Both teams to score 40.1% ( -0.1) |
| Goals |
| Over 2.5 | Under 2.5 |
| 32.55% ( -0.11) | 67.45% ( 0.11) |
| Over 3.5 | Under 3.5 |
| 14.43% ( -0.07) | 85.57% ( 0.08) |
| San Lorenzo Goals |
| Over 0.5 | Under 0.5 |
| 64.66% ( -0.02) | 35.34% ( 0.02) |
| Over 1.5 | Under 1.5 |
| 27.9% ( -0.02) | 72.1% ( 0.02) |
| Boca Juniors Goals |
| Over 0.5 | Under 0.5 |
| 62.02% ( -0.13) | 37.98% ( 0.14) |
