SM
Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Independiente win with a probability of 54.72%. A draw had a probability of 27.8% and a win for Instituto had a probability of 17.51%.
The most likely scoreline for a Independiente win was 1-0 with a probability of 18.09%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 2-0 (12.53%) and 2-1 (8.15%). The likeliest drawn scoreline was 0-0 (13.07%), while for a Instituto win it was 0-1 (8.5%). The actual scoreline of 2-0 was predicted with a 12.5% likelihood. Our data analysis correctly predicted that Independiente would win this match.
| Result | ||
| Independiente | Draw | Instituto |
54.72% ( -0.4) | 27.77% ( 0.2) | 17.51% ( 0.2) |
| Both teams to score 35.83% ( -0.12) |
| Goals |
| Over 2.5 | Under 2.5 |
| 33.27% ( -0.34) | 66.73% ( 0.34) |
| Over 3.5 | Under 3.5 |
| 14.92% ( -0.23) | 85.08% ( 0.23) |
| Independiente Goals |
| Over 0.5 | Under 0.5 |
| 74.96% ( -0.34) | 25.04% ( 0.34) |
| Over 1.5 | Under 1.5 | |
| 40.28% ( -0.47) | 59.72% ( 0.47) |
| Instituto Goals |
| Over 0.5 | Under 0.5 |
| 47.8% ( 0.05) | 52.2% ( -0.05) |
| Over 1.5 | Under 1.5 | |
| 13.87% ( 0.04) | 86.13% ( -0.04) |
| Score Analysis |
| Independiente | Draw | Instituto |
| 1-0 @ 18.09% ( 0.05) 2-0 @ 12.53% ( -0.08)2-1 @ 8.15% ( -0.04)3-0 @ 5.78% ( -0.1)3-1 @ 3.76% ( -0.06)4-0 @ 2% ( -0.05)4-1 @ 1.3% ( -0.03)3-2 @ 1.22% ( -0.02)Other @ 1.88% Total : 54.71% | 0-0 @ 13.07% ( 0.17) 1-1 @ 11.76% ( 0.05)2-2 @ 2.65% ( -0.01)Other @ 0.28% Total : 27.76% | 0-1 @ 8.5% ( 0.12) 1-2 @ 3.83% ( 0.02)0-2 @ 2.76% ( 0.04)Other @ 2.43% Total : 17.51% |
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