SM
Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Instituto win with a probability of 38.65%. A draw had a probability of 32.9% and a win for San Lorenzo had a probability of 28.47%.
The most likely scoreline for a Instituto win was 1-0 with a probability of 16.55%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 2-0 (8.15%) and 2-1 (6.5%). The likeliest drawn scoreline was 0-0 (16.82%), while for a San Lorenzo win it was 0-1 (13.42%). The actual scoreline of 0-1 was predicted with a 13.4% likelihood.
| Result | ||
| Instituto | Draw | San Lorenzo |
38.65% ( -0.86) | 32.87% ( -0.28) | 28.47% ( 1.14) |
| Both teams to score 34.44% ( 0.94) |
| Goals |
| Over 2.5 | Under 2.5 |
| 26.47% ( 0.86) | 73.53% ( -0.86) |
| Over 3.5 | Under 3.5 |
| 10.59% ( 0.51) | 89.41% ( -0.51) |
| Instituto Goals |
| Over 0.5 | Under 0.5 |
| 62.62% ( -0.05) | 37.37% ( 0.05) |
| Over 1.5 | Under 1.5 | |
| 25.84% ( -0.05) | 74.16% ( 0.05) |
| San Lorenzo Goals |
| Over 0.5 | Under 0.5 |
| 54.99% ( 1.54) | 45% ( -1.54) |
| Over 1.5 | Under 1.5 | |
| 19.06% ( 1.21) | 80.93% ( -1.21) |
| Score Analysis |
| Instituto | Draw | San Lorenzo |
| 1-0 @ 16.55% ( -0.57) 2-0 @ 8.15% ( -0.29)2-1 @ 6.5% ( 0.05)3-0 @ 2.67% ( -0.1)3-1 @ 2.13% ( 0.01)Other @ 2.64% Total : 38.65% | 0-0 @ 16.82% ( -0.55) 1-1 @ 13.21% ( 0.12)2-2 @ 2.6% ( 0.13)Other @ 0.24% Total : 32.86% | 0-1 @ 13.42% ( 0.14) 0-2 @ 5.36% ( 0.28)1-2 @ 5.28% ( 0.27)0-3 @ 1.43% ( 0.13)1-3 @ 1.4% ( 0.13)Other @ 1.58% Total : 28.47% |
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