SM
Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Velez Sarsfield win with a probability of 40.07%. A draw had a probability of 30.1% and a win for Instituto had a probability of 29.84%.
The most likely scoreline for a Velez Sarsfield win was 0-1 with a probability of 14.38%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 0-2 (8.12%) and 1-2 (7.57%). The likeliest drawn scoreline was 1-1 (13.39%), while for a Instituto win it was 1-0 (11.86%). The actual scoreline of 2-0 was predicted with a 5.5% likelihood.
| Result | ||
| Instituto | Draw | Velez Sarsfield |
29.84% ( 0.39) | 30.09% ( 0.11) | 40.07% ( -0.5) |
| Both teams to score 41.01% ( -0.13) |
| Goals |
| Over 2.5 | Under 2.5 |
| 33.98% ( -0.22) | 66.02% ( 0.22) |
| Over 3.5 | Under 3.5 |
| 15.4% ( -0.15) | 84.6% ( 0.15) |
| Instituto Goals |
| Over 0.5 | Under 0.5 |
| 60.6% ( 0.18) | 39.4% ( -0.19) |
| Over 1.5 | Under 1.5 | |
| 23.9% ( 0.17) | 76.1% ( -0.17) |
| Velez Sarsfield Goals |
| Over 0.5 | Under 0.5 |
| 67.68% ( -0.42) | 32.32% ( 0.42) |
| Over 1.5 | Under 1.5 | |
| 31.18% ( -0.47) | 68.82% ( 0.47) |
| Score Analysis |
| Instituto | Draw | Velez Sarsfield |
| 1-0 @ 11.86% ( 0.16) 2-1 @ 6.24% ( 0.04)2-0 @ 5.52% ( 0.1)3-1 @ 1.94% ( 0.02)3-0 @ 1.72% ( 0.04)3-2 @ 1.09% ( 0)Other @ 1.47% Total : 29.84% | 1-1 @ 13.39% ( 0.02) 0-0 @ 12.73% ( 0.11)2-2 @ 3.52% ( -0.02)Other @ 0.44% Total : 30.08% | 0-1 @ 14.38% ( -0.04) 0-2 @ 8.12% ( -0.12)1-2 @ 7.57% ( -0.07)0-3 @ 3.06% ( -0.08)1-3 @ 2.85% ( -0.06)2-3 @ 1.33% ( -0.02)Other @ 2.76% Total : 40.07% |
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