Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Melbourne Victory win with a probability of 48.14%. A win for Macarthur had a probability of 28.2% and a draw had a probability of 23.7%.
The most likely scoreline for a Melbourne Victory win was 2-1 with a probability of 9.46%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 1-0 (8.66%) and 2-0 (7.46%). The likeliest Macarthur win was 1-2 (6.95%), while for a drawn scoreline it was 1-1 (10.97%). The actual scoreline of 3-1 was predicted with a 5.4% likelihood. Our data analysis correctly predicted that Melbourne Victory would win this match.
