SM
| Current League Standings | P | GD | PTS | |
| 1 | Melbourne Victory | 6 | 4 | 13 |
| 2 | Macarthur | 6 | 2 | 13 |
| 3 | Western United | 6 | 1 | 12 |
| Current League Standings | P | GD | PTS | |
| 2 | Macarthur | 6 | 2 | 13 |
| 3 | Western United | 6 | 1 | 12 |
| 4 | Central Coast Mariners | 5 | 3 | 9 |
Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Melbourne Victory win with a probability of 54.16%. A draw had a probability of 23% and a win for Western United had a probability of 22.87%.
The most likely scoreline for a Melbourne Victory win was 2-1 with a probability of 9.82%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 1-0 (9.8%) and 2-0 (8.91%). The likeliest drawn scoreline was 1-1 (10.79%), while for a Western United win it was 1-2 (5.95%). The actual scoreline of 1-4 was predicted with a 0.6% likelihood.
| Result | ||
| Melbourne Victory | Draw | Western United |
54.16% ( 0.17) | 22.97% ( -0.06) | 22.87% ( -0.11) |
| Both teams to score 55.95% ( 0.06) |
| Goals |
| Over 2.5 | Under 2.5 |
| 55.9% ( 0.15) | 44.1% ( -0.14) |
| Over 3.5 | Under 3.5 |
| 33.52% ( 0.14) | 66.48% ( -0.14) |
| Melbourne Victory Goals |
| Over 0.5 | Under 0.5 |
| 83.79% ( 0.11) | 16.21% ( -0.11) |
| Over 1.5 | Under 1.5 |
| 54.29% ( 0.2) | 45.71% ( -0.2) |
| Western United Goals |
| Over 0.5 | Under 0.5 |
| 66.78% ( -0.02) | 33.22% ( 0.02) |
