Data Analysis
Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Melbourne Victory win with a probability of 38.15%. A win for Macarthur had a probability of 37.38% and a draw had a probability of 24.5%.
The most likely scoreline for a Melbourne Victory win was 2-1 with a probability of 8.45%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 1-0 (7.69%) and 2-0 (5.73%). The likeliest Macarthur win was 1-2 (8.35%), while for a drawn scoreline it was 1-1 (11.33%). The actual scoreline of 1-2 was predicted with an 8.4% likelihood.
