Data Analysis
Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Melbourne Victory win with a probability of 40.84%. A win for Newcastle Jets had a probability of 34.17% and a draw had a probability of 25%.
The most likely scoreline for a Melbourne Victory win was 2-1 with a probability of 8.78%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 1-0 (8.71%) and 2-0 (6.51%). The likeliest Newcastle Jets win was 1-2 (7.91%), while for a drawn scoreline it was 1-1 (11.73%). The actual scoreline of 1-2 was predicted with a 7.9% likelihood.
