Data Analysis

Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Portugal win with a probability of 50.56%. A win for Turkey had a probability of 26.56% and a draw had a probability of 22.9%.

The most likely scoreline for a Portugal win was 2-1 with a probability of 9.58%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 1-0 (8.24%) and 2-0 (7.54%). The likeliest Turkey win was 1-2 (6.65%), while for a drawn scoreline it was 1-1 (10.46%). The actual scoreline of 3-1 was predicted with a 5.8% likelihood. Our team at Sports Mole and our data analysis both correctly predicted that Portugal would win this match.