Data Analysis

Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Italy win with a probability of 53.27%. A draw had a probability of 26.8% and a win for Turkey had a probability of 19.98%.

The most likely scoreline for a Italy win was 0-1 with a probability of 15.63%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 0-2 (11.37%) and 1-2 (8.82%). The likeliest drawn scoreline was 1-1 (12.12%), while for a Turkey win it was 1-0 (8.33%). The actual scoreline of 2-3 was predicted with a 1.7% likelihood. Our data analysis correctly predicted that Italy would win this match.