Data Analysis

Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Turkey win with a probability of 57.56%. A draw had a probability of 23% and a win for Lithuania had a probability of 19.43%.

The most likely scoreline for a Turkey win was 0-1 with a probability of 11.65%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 0-2 (10.47%) and 1-2 (9.83%). The likeliest drawn scoreline was 1-1 (10.94%), while for a Lithuania win it was 1-0 (6.09%). The actual scoreline of 0-6 was predicted with a 0.3% likelihood. Our team at Sports Mole and our data analysis both correctly predicted that Turkey would win this match.