SM
Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Connah's Quay Nomads win with a probability of 48.71%. A win for Pen-y-Bont had a probability of 25.91% and a draw had a probability of 25.4%.
The most likely scoreline for a Connah's Quay Nomads win was 0-1 with a probability of 11.38%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 1-2 (9.37%) and 0-2 (8.84%). The likeliest Pen-y-Bont win was 1-0 (7.77%), while for a drawn scoreline it was 1-1 (12.07%). The actual scoreline of 1-1 was predicted with a 12.1% likelihood.
| Result | ||
| Pen-y-Bont | Draw | Connah's Quay Nomads |
25.91% ( -0.01) | 25.38% ( -0.07) | 48.71% ( 0.09) |
| Both teams to score 51.52% ( 0.22) |
| Goals |
| Over 2.5 | Under 2.5 |
| 48.48% ( 0.29) | 51.52% ( -0.29) |
| Over 3.5 | Under 3.5 |
| 26.68% ( 0.25) | 73.32% ( -0.25) |
| Pen-y-Bont Goals |
| Over 0.5 | Under 0.5 |
| 65.36% ( 0.15) | 34.64% ( -0.14) |
| Over 1.5 | Under 1.5 | ||||||||
| 28.63% ( 0.15) | 71.37% ( -0.15) |
| Connah's Quay Nomads Goals |
| Over 0.5 | Under 0.5 |
| 78.83% ( 0.16) | 21.17% ( -0.15) |
| Over 1.5 | Under 1.5 | ||||||||
| 45.97% ( 0.24) | 54.03% ( -0.24) |
| Score Analysis |
| Pen-y-Bont | Draw | Connah's Quay Nomads |
| 1-0 @ 7.77% ( -0.06) 2-1 @ 6.4% ( 0.01)2-0 @ 4.12% ( -0.01)3-1 @ 2.26% ( 0.01)3-2 @ 1.76% ( 0.02)3-0 @ 1.46% ( 0)Other @ 2.15% Total : 25.91% | 1-1 @ 12.07% ( -0.03) 0-0 @ 7.33% ( -0.08)2-2 @ 4.97% ( 0.03)3-3 @ 0.91% ( 0.01)Other @ 0.1% Total : 25.38% | 0-1 @ 11.38% ( -0.08) 1-2 @ 9.37% ( 0.02)0-2 @ 8.84% ( -0.02)1-3 @ 4.85% ( 0.03)0-3 @ 4.58% ( 0.01)2-3 @ 2.57% ( 0.03)1-4 @ 1.88% ( 0.02)0-4 @ 1.78% ( 0.01)2-4 @ 1% ( 0.02)Other @ 2.46% Total : 48.71% |
| Team | P | W | D | L | F | A | GD | PTS | |
| 1 | The New SaintsNew Saints | 22 | 20 | 2 | 0 | 77 | 14 | 63 | 62 |
| 2 | Connah's Quay NomadsConnah's Quay | 22 | 15 | 2 | 5 | 59 | 29 | 30 | 47 |
| 3 | Bala TownBala Town | 22 | 10 | 7 | 5 | 25 | 20 | 5 | 37 |
| 4 | Cardiff MUCardiff MU | 22 | 9 | 7 | 6 | 28 | 39 | -11 | 34 |
| 5 | Newtown AFCNewtown | 22 | 10 | 3 | 9 | 35 | 31 | 4 | 33 |
| 6 | Caernarfon TownCaernarfon | 22 | 9 | 4 | 9 | 40 | 41 | -1 | 31 |
| 7 | Haverfordwest CountyHaverfordwest | 22 | 7 | 7 | 8 | 29 | 33 | -4 | 28 |
| 8 | Pen-y-BontPen-y-Bont | 22 | 8 | 4 | 10 | 28 | 32 | -4 | 28 |
| 9 | Barry Town UnitedBarry | 22 | 6 | 5 | 11 | 27 | 41 | -14 | 23 |
| 10 | Aberystwyth TownAberystwyth | 22 | 4 | 3 | 15 | 18 | 46 | -28 | 15 |
| 11 | Colwyn Bay | 22 | 4 | 2 | 16 | 27 | 49 | -22 | 14 |
| 12 | Pontypridd Town AFCPontypridd | 22 | 5 | 4 | 13 | 13 | 31 | -18 | 13 |
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