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Welsh Premier League | Gameweek 5
Sep 3, 2022 at 2.30pm UK
Deeside College Stadium
Connah's Quay
2 - 0
Pen-y-Bont
Horan (38'), Hayes (75')
Mendes (74'), Harrington (88'), Franklin (89'), Holmes (90+3')
FT(HT: 1-0)

Wood (81')
Coverage of the Welsh Premier League clash between Connah's Quay Nomads and Pen-y-Bont.

Form, Standings, Stats

Last Game: Pen-y-Bont 3-2 Haverfordwest
Tuesday, August 30 at 7.45pm in Welsh Premier League

Data Analysis

Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Connah's Quay Nomads win with a probability of 57.78%. A draw had a probability of 23.3% and a win for Pen-y-Bont had a probability of 18.89%.

The most likely scoreline for a Connah's Quay Nomads win was 1-0 with a probability of 12.39%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 2-0 (10.89%) and 2-1 (9.74%). The likeliest drawn scoreline was 1-1 (11.08%), while for a Pen-y-Bont win it was 0-1 (6.3%). The actual scoreline of 2-0 was predicted with a 10.9% likelihood. Our data analysis correctly predicted that Connah's Quay Nomads would win this match.

Result
Connah's Quay NomadsDrawPen-y-Bont
57.78% (-1.548 -1.55) 23.33% (0.352 0.35) 18.89% (1.198 1.2)
Both teams to score 48.92% (1.062 1.06)
Goals
Over 2.5Under 2.5
49.47% (0.312 0.31)50.53% (-0.309 -0.31)
Over 3.5Under 3.5
27.55% (0.275 0.27)72.45% (-0.27200000000001 -0.27)
Connah's Quay Nomads Goals
Over 0.5Under 0.5
82.77% (-0.434 -0.43)17.24% (0.436 0.44)
Over 1.5Under 1.5
52.46% (-0.768 -0.77)47.54% (0.77 0.77)
Pen-y-Bont Goals
Over 0.5Under 0.5
59.11% (1.586 1.59)40.89% (-1.584 -1.58)
Over 1.5Under 1.5
22.54% (1.388 1.39)77.46% (-1.386 -1.39)
Score Analysis
    Connah's Quay Nomads 57.78%
    Pen-y-Bont 18.89%
    Draw 23.32%
Connah's Quay NomadsDrawPen-y-Bont
1-0 @ 12.39% (-0.33 -0.33)
2-0 @ 10.89% (-0.46 -0.46)
2-1 @ 9.74% (0.021000000000001 0.02)
3-0 @ 6.38% (-0.366 -0.37)
3-1 @ 5.71% (-0.071000000000001 -0.07)
4-0 @ 2.81% (-0.204 -0.2)
3-2 @ 2.55% (0.078 0.08)
4-1 @ 2.51% (-0.068 -0.07)
4-2 @ 1.12% (0.018 0.02)
5-0 @ 0.99% (-0.087 -0.09)
Other @ 2.69%
Total : 57.78%
1-1 @ 11.08% (0.19 0.19)
0-0 @ 7.05% (-0.088 -0.09)
2-2 @ 4.36% (0.194 0.19)
Other @ 0.84%
Total : 23.32%
0-1 @ 6.3% (0.192 0.19)
1-2 @ 4.96% (0.289 0.29)
0-2 @ 2.82% (0.202 0.2)
1-3 @ 1.48% (0.145 0.15)
2-3 @ 1.3% (0.111 0.11)
Other @ 2.04%
Total : 18.89%

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Form Guide
Last Game: Connah's Quay 1-0 Bala Town
Tuesday, August 30 at 7.45pm in Welsh Premier League
Last Game: New Saints 2-1 Connah's Quay
Friday, August 26 at 7.45pm in Welsh Premier League
Last Game: Connah's Quay 1-0 Airbus UK
Friday, August 19 at 7.45pm in Welsh Premier League
Last Game: Cardiff MU 2-0 Connah's Quay
Saturday, August 13 at 2.30pm in Welsh Premier League
Last Game: Aberystwyth 1-1 Connah's Quay
Saturday, April 23 at 12.45pm in Welsh Premier League
Last Game: Connah's Quay 3-0 Haverfordwest
Monday, April 18 at 2.30pm in Welsh Premier League
Last Game: Pen-y-Bont 3-2 Haverfordwest
Tuesday, August 30 at 7.45pm in Welsh Premier League
Last Game: Pen-y-Bont 2-1 Flint Town
Saturday, August 27 at 2.30pm in Welsh Premier League
Last Game: New Saints 1-0 Pen-y-Bont
Saturday, August 20 at 2.30pm in Welsh Premier League
Last Game: Pen-y-Bont 2-0 Bala Town
Sunday, August 14 at 2.30pm in Welsh Premier League
Last Game: Flint Town 1-1 Pen-y-Bont (3-1 pen.)
Saturday, May 7 at 2.30pm in Welsh Premier League
Last Game: Bala Town 11-0 Pen-y-Bont
Saturday, April 23 at 12.45pm in Welsh Premier League
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Premier League Table
TeamPWDLFAGDPTS
1The New SaintsNew Saints22202077146362
2Connah's Quay NomadsConnah's Quay22152559293047
3Bala TownBala Town2210752520537
4Cardiff MUCardiff MU229762839-1134
5Newtown AFCNewtown2210393531433
6Caernarfon TownCaernarfon229494041-131
7Haverfordwest CountyHaverfordwest227782933-428
8Pen-y-BontPen-y-Bont2284102832-428
9Barry Town UnitedBarry2265112741-1423
10Aberystwyth TownAberystwyth2243151846-2815
11Colwyn Bay2242162749-2214
12Pontypridd Town AFCPontypridd2254131331-1813
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