SM
Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Pen-y-Bont win with a probability of 61.71%. A draw had a probability of 20.2% and a win for Caernarfon Town had a probability of 18.09%.
The most likely scoreline for a Pen-y-Bont win was 2-1 with a probability of 9.9%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 2-0 (9.29%) and 1-0 (8.72%). The likeliest drawn scoreline was 1-1 (9.29%), while for a Caernarfon Town win it was 1-2 (4.95%). The actual scoreline of 5-1 was predicted with a 1.6% likelihood. Our data analysis correctly predicted that Pen-y-Bont would win this match.
| Result | ||
| Pen-y-Bont | Draw | Caernarfon Town |
61.71% ( 0.37) | 20.2% ( -0.19) | 18.09% ( -0.18) |
| Both teams to score 57.76% ( 0.34) |
| Goals |
| Over 2.5 | Under 2.5 |
| 61.92% ( 0.61) | 38.08% ( -0.6) |
| Over 3.5 | Under 3.5 |
| 39.65% ( 0.64) | 60.35% ( -0.64) |
| Pen-y-Bont Goals |
| Over 0.5 | Under 0.5 |
| 88.11% ( 0.29) | 11.88% ( -0.29) |
| Over 1.5 | Under 1.5 | ||||||||
| 62.8% ( 0.61) | 37.2% ( -0.6) |
| Caernarfon Town Goals |
| Over 0.5 | Under 0.5 |
| 65.55% ( 0.17) | 34.45% ( -0.17) |
| Over 1.5 | Under 1.5 | ||||||||
| 28.84% ( 0.18) | 71.16% ( -0.17) |
| Score Analysis |
| Pen-y-Bont | Draw | Caernarfon Town |
| 2-1 @ 9.9% ( -0.02) 2-0 @ 9.29% ( -0.06)1-0 @ 8.72% ( -0.15)3-1 @ 7.03% ( 0.07)3-0 @ 6.59% ( 0.03)3-2 @ 3.74% ( 0.05)4-1 @ 3.74% ( 0.08)4-0 @ 3.51% ( 0.06)4-2 @ 1.99% ( 0.05)5-1 @ 1.59% ( 0.05)5-0 @ 1.5% ( 0.04)Other @ 4.11% Total : 61.71% | 1-1 @ 9.29% ( -0.12) 2-2 @ 5.27% ( 0.02)0-0 @ 4.09% ( -0.12)3-3 @ 1.33% ( 0.03)Other @ 0.21% Total : 20.2% | 1-2 @ 4.95% ( -0.04) 0-1 @ 4.36% ( -0.11)0-2 @ 2.33% ( -0.05)2-3 @ 1.87% ( 0.01)1-3 @ 1.76% ( -0.01)Other @ 2.82% Total : 18.09% |
| Team | P | W | D | L | F | A | GD | PTS | |
| 1 | The New SaintsNew Saints | 22 | 19 | 3 | 0 | 83 | 8 | 75 | 60 |
| 2 | Connah's Quay NomadsConnah's Quay | 22 | 13 | 5 | 4 | 33 | 14 | 19 | 44 |
| 3 | Pen-y-BontPen-y-Bont | 22 | 12 | 5 | 5 | 37 | 19 | 18 | 41 |
| 4 | Cardiff MUCardiff MU | 22 | 13 | 2 | 7 | 29 | 29 | 0 | 41 |
| 5 | Bala TownBala Town | 22 | 12 | 4 | 6 | 42 | 21 | 21 | 40 |
| 6 | Newtown AFCNewtown | 22 | 10 | 3 | 9 | 41 | 39 | 2 | 33 |
| 7 | Haverfordwest CountyHaverfordwest | 22 | 8 | 3 | 11 | 29 | 35 | -6 | 27 |
| 8 | Caernarfon TownCaernarfon | 22 | 8 | 1 | 13 | 33 | 41 | -8 | 25 |
| 9 | Flint Town UnitedFlint Town | 22 | 6 | 6 | 10 | 24 | 37 | -13 | 24 |
| 10 | Aberystwyth TownAberystwyth | 22 | 7 | 1 | 14 | 23 | 58 | -35 | 22 |
| 11 | Pontypridd Town AFCPontypridd | 22 | 6 | 2 | 14 | 22 | 42 | -20 | 20 |
| 12 | Airbus UK BroughtonAirbus UK | 22 | 0 | 1 | 21 | 13 | 66 | -53 | -2 |
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