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Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Newtown AFC win with a probability of 41.41%. A win for Caernarfon Town had a probability of 34.87% and a draw had a probability of 23.7%.
The most likely scoreline for a Newtown AFC win was 1-2 with a probability of 8.77%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 0-1 (7.24%) and 0-2 (5.92%). The likeliest Caernarfon Town win was 2-1 (7.96%), while for a drawn scoreline it was 1-1 (10.73%). The actual scoreline of 2-3 was predicted with a 3.5% likelihood. Our data analysis correctly predicted that Newtown AFC would win this match.
| Result | ||
| Caernarfon Town | Draw | Newtown AFC |
34.87% ( -0.07) | 23.71% ( 0.02) | 41.41% ( 0.05) |
| Both teams to score 62.2% ( -0.09) |
| Goals |
| Over 2.5 | Under 2.5 |
| 60.22% ( -0.1) | 39.77% ( 0.1) |
| Over 3.5 | Under 3.5 |
| 37.87% ( -0.11) | 62.13% ( 0.1) |
| Caernarfon Town Goals |
| Over 0.5 | Under 0.5 |
| 77.28% ( -0.09) | 22.71% ( 0.08) |
| Over 1.5 | Under 1.5 | ||||||||
| 43.62% ( -0.12) | 56.37% ( 0.12) |
| Newtown AFC Goals |
| Over 0.5 | Under 0.5 |
| 80.47% ( -0.02) | 19.52% ( 0.02) |
| Over 1.5 | Under 1.5 | ||||||||
| 48.58% ( -0.04) | 51.41% ( 0.03) |
| Score Analysis |
| Caernarfon Town | Draw | Newtown AFC |
| 2-1 @ 7.96% ( -0.01) 1-0 @ 6.57% ( 0.01)2-0 @ 4.87% ( -0)3-1 @ 3.93% ( -0.01)3-2 @ 3.21% ( -0.01)3-0 @ 2.41% ( -0.01)4-1 @ 1.46% ( -0.01)4-2 @ 1.19% ( -0.01)Other @ 3.28% Total : 34.87% | 1-1 @ 10.73% ( 0.01) 2-2 @ 6.5% ( -0.01)0-0 @ 4.43% ( 0.02)3-3 @ 1.75% ( -0.01)Other @ 0.29% Total : 23.71% | 1-2 @ 8.77% ( 0.01) 0-1 @ 7.24% ( 0.03)0-2 @ 5.92% ( 0.02)1-3 @ 4.78% ( 0)2-3 @ 3.54% ( -0.01)0-3 @ 3.22% ( 0.01)1-4 @ 1.95% ( -0)2-4 @ 1.45% ( -0)0-4 @ 1.32% ( 0)Other @ 3.23% Total : 41.41% |
| Team | P | W | D | L | F | A | GD | PTS | |
| 1 | The New SaintsNew Saints | 11 | 9 | 2 | 0 | 37 | 8 | 29 | 29 |
| 2 | Connah's Quay NomadsConnah's Quay | 11 | 8 | 1 | 2 | 31 | 14 | 17 | 25 |
| 3 | Newtown AFCNewtown | 11 | 7 | 1 | 3 | 21 | 11 | 10 | 22 |
| 4 | Caernarfon TownCaernarfon | 11 | 5 | 2 | 4 | 19 | 19 | 0 | 17 |
| 5 | Pen-y-BontPen-y-Bont | 11 | 5 | 2 | 4 | 15 | 15 | 0 | 17 |
| 6 | Bala TownBala Town | 11 | 4 | 4 | 3 | 8 | 8 | 0 | 16 |
| 7 | Cardiff MUCardiff MU | 11 | 4 | 4 | 3 | 11 | 15 | -4 | 16 |
| 8 | Pontypridd Town AFCPontypridd | 11 | 3 | 3 | 5 | 4 | 9 | -5 | 12 |
| 9 | Haverfordwest CountyHaverfordwest | 11 | 2 | 4 | 5 | 11 | 21 | -10 | 10 |
| 10 | Colwyn Bay | 11 | 2 | 2 | 7 | 12 | 20 | -8 | 8 |
| 11 | Barry Town UnitedBarry | 11 | 1 | 3 | 7 | 10 | 20 | -10 | 6 |
| 12 | Aberystwyth TownAberystwyth | 11 | 1 | 2 | 8 | 6 | 25 | -19 | 5 |
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