SM
| Current League Standings | P | GD | PTS | |
| 5 | Haverfordwest County | 2 | 1 | 4 |
| 6 | Caernarfon Town | 2 | 1 | 3 |
| 7 | Pen-y-Bont | 2 | 1 | 3 |
| Current League Standings | P | GD | PTS | |
| 1 | The New Saints | 3 | 2 | 7 |
| 2 | Cardiff MU | 2 | 6 | 6 |
| 3 | Flint Town United | 2 | 3 | 6 |
Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Cardiff MU win with a probability of 46.38%. A win for Caernarfon Town had a probability of 27.42% and a draw had a probability of 26.2%.
The most likely scoreline for a Cardiff MU win was 0-1 with a probability of 11.72%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 1-2 (9.1%) and 0-2 (8.58%). The likeliest Caernarfon Town win was 1-0 (8.5%), while for a drawn scoreline it was 1-1 (12.44%). The actual scoreline of 5-1 was predicted with a 0.1% likelihood.
| Result | ||
| Caernarfon Town | Draw | Cardiff MU |
27.42% ( -0.24) | 26.2% ( -0.19) | 46.38% ( 0.43) |
| Both teams to score 50.24% ( 0.4) |
| Goals |
| Over 2.5 | Under 2.5 |
| 46.23% ( 0.6) | 53.77% ( -0.6) |
| Over 3.5 | Under 3.5 |
| 24.75% ( 0.51) | 75.25% ( -0.51) |
| Caernarfon Town Goals |
| Over 0.5 | Under 0.5 |
| 65.38% ( 0.13) | 34.62% ( -0.13) |
| Over 1.5 | Under 1.5 | |
| 28.66% ( 0.14) | 71.34% ( -0.14) |
| Cardiff MU Goals |
| Over 0.5 | Under 0.5 |
| 76.84% ( 0.46) | 23.15% ( -0.46) |
| Over 1.5 | Under 1.5 | |
| 42.97% ( 0.67) | 57.03% ( -0.67) |
| Score Analysis |
| Caernarfon Town | Draw | Cardiff MU |
| 1-0 @ 8.5% ( -0.17) 2-1 @ 6.6% ( -0.02)2-0 @ 4.51% ( -0.08)3-1 @ 2.33% ( 0)3-2 @ 1.71% ( 0.03)3-0 @ 1.6% ( -0.02)Other @ 2.18% Total : 27.42% | 1-1 @ 12.44% ( -0.07) 0-0 @ 8.02% ( -0.19)2-2 @ 4.83% ( 0.05)Other @ 0.92% Total : 26.2% | 0-1 @ 11.72% ( -0.12) 1-2 @ 9.1% ( 0.06)0-2 @ 8.58% ( 0.03)1-3 @ 4.44% ( 0.09)0-3 @ 4.18% ( 0.07)2-3 @ 2.35% ( 0.06)1-4 @ 1.62% ( 0.05)0-4 @ 1.53% ( 0.05)Other @ 2.85% Total : 46.37% |
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