Data Analysis
Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Penarol win with a probability of 64.29%. A draw had a probability of 21.6% and a win for Deportivo Maldonado had a probability of 14.11%.
The most likely scoreline for a Penarol win was 0-1 with a probability of 13.7%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 0-2 (12.84%) and 1-2 (9.52%). The likeliest drawn scoreline was 1-1 (10.15%), while for a Deportivo Maldonado win it was 1-0 (5.42%). The actual scoreline of 1-0 was predicted with a 5.4% likelihood.
