Renowned for being a streaky side by nature, Sassuolo could end Bologna's unbeaten run this weekend - but only if they limit the damage in defence. The visitors' good fortune must expire at some point, and a derby defeat could be on the cards.
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Data Analysis
Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Bologna win with a probability of 39.43%. A win for Sassuolo had a probability of 35.69% and a draw had a probability of 24.9%.
The most likely scoreline for a Bologna win was 1-2 with a probability of 8.61%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 0-1 (8.35%) and 0-2 (6.17%). The likeliest Sassuolo win was 2-1 (8.13%), while for a drawn scoreline it was 1-1 (11.65%). The actual scoreline of 1-1 was predicted with an 11.7% likelihood.
-0.38) 
0.44) 
