SM
Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Napoli win with a probability of 46.64%. A win for Fiorentina had a probability of 28.43% and a draw had a probability of 24.9%.
The most likely scoreline for a Napoli win was 1-0 with a probability of 10.02%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 2-1 (9.32%) and 2-0 (7.92%). The likeliest Fiorentina win was 0-1 (7.48%), while for a drawn scoreline it was 1-1 (11.8%). The actual scoreline of 1-0 was predicted with a 10% likelihood. Our data analysis correctly predicted a 1-0 win for Napoli in this match.
| Result | ||
| Napoli | Draw | Fiorentina |
46.64% ( -0.03) | 24.92% ( 0.07) | 28.43% ( -0.04) |
| Both teams to score 54.94% ( -0.25) |
| Goals |
| Over 2.5 | Under 2.5 |
| 52.03% ( -0.32) | 47.97% ( 0.32) |
| Over 3.5 | Under 3.5 |
| 29.85% ( -0.29) | 70.14% ( 0.3) |
| Napoli Goals |
| Over 0.5 | Under 0.5 |
| 79.39% ( -0.14) | 20.61% ( 0.15) |
| Over 1.5 | Under 1.5 | ||||||||
| 46.83% ( -0.23) | 53.16% ( 0.23) |
| Fiorentina Goals |
| Over 0.5 | Under 0.5 |
| 69.21% ( -0.19) | 30.79% ( 0.19) |
| Over 1.5 | Under 1.5 | ||||||||
| 32.94% ( -0.22) | 67.06% ( 0.22) |
| Score Analysis |
| Napoli | Draw | Fiorentina |
| 1-0 @ 10.02% ( 0.08) 2-1 @ 9.32% ( -0.01)2-0 @ 7.92% ( 0.03)3-1 @ 4.91% ( -0.03)3-0 @ 4.17% 3-2 @ 2.89% ( -0.03)4-1 @ 1.94% ( -0.02)4-0 @ 1.65% ( -0.01)4-2 @ 1.14% ( -0.02)Other @ 2.69% Total : 46.64% | 1-1 @ 11.8% ( 0.04) 0-0 @ 6.35% ( 0.08)2-2 @ 5.49% ( -0.03)3-3 @ 1.14% ( -0.02)Other @ 0.14% Total : 24.92% | 0-1 @ 7.48% ( 0.06) 1-2 @ 6.95% ( -0.01)0-2 @ 4.4% ( 0.01)1-3 @ 2.73% ( -0.02)2-3 @ 2.16% ( -0.02)0-3 @ 1.73% ( -0)Other @ 2.99% Total : 28.43% |
| Team | P | W | D | L | F | A | GD | PTS | |
| C | Napoli | 38 | 28 | 6 | 4 | 77 | 28 | 49 | 90 |
| 2 | Lazio | 38 | 22 | 8 | 8 | 60 | 30 | 30 | 74 |
| 3 | Inter Milan | 38 | 23 | 3 | 12 | 71 | 42 | 29 | 72 |
| 4 | AC Milan | 38 | 20 | 10 | 8 | 64 | 43 | 21 | 70 |
| 5 | Atalanta BCAtalanta | 38 | 19 | 7 | 12 | 66 | 48 | 18 | 64 |
| 6 | Roma | 38 | 18 | 9 | 11 | 50 | 38 | 12 | 63 |
| 7 | Juventus | 38 | 22 | 6 | 10 | 56 | 33 | 23 | 62 |
| 8 | Fiorentina | 38 | 15 | 11 | 12 | 53 | 43 | 10 | 56 |
| 9 | Bologna | 38 | 14 | 12 | 12 | 53 | 49 | 4 | 54 |
| 10 | Torino | 38 | 14 | 11 | 13 | 42 | 41 | 1 | 53 |
| 11 | Monza | 38 | 14 | 10 | 14 | 48 | 52 | -4 | 52 |
| 12 | Udinese | 38 | 11 | 13 | 14 | 47 | 48 | -1 | 46 |
| 13 | SassuoloSassuolo | 38 | 12 | 9 | 17 | 47 | 61 | -14 | 45 |
| 14 | Empoli | 38 | 10 | 13 | 15 | 37 | 49 | -12 | 43 |
| 15 | Salernitana | 38 | 9 | 15 | 14 | 48 | 62 | -14 | 42 |
| 16 | Lecce | 38 | 8 | 12 | 18 | 33 | 46 | -13 | 36 |
| R | SpeziaSpezia | 38 | 6 | 13 | 19 | 31 | 62 | -31 | 31 |
| 18 | Hellas VeronaHellas Verona | 38 | 7 | 10 | 21 | 31 | 59 | -28 | 31 |
| R | Cremonese | 38 | 5 | 12 | 21 | 36 | 69 | -33 | 27 |
| R | Sampdoria | 38 | 3 | 10 | 25 | 24 | 71 | -47 | 19 |
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