For all their woes on the road, Cagliari can test most teams on home turf - and Lazio look like they have lost some rhythm. The spoils could therefore be shared by two teams with very different objectives, fully satisfying neither.
Read more.
Data Analysis
Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Cagliari win with a probability of 40.73%. A win for Lazio had a probability of 32.63% and a draw had a probability of 26.6%.
The most likely scoreline for a Cagliari win was 1-0 with a probability of 10.69%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 2-1 (8.58%) and 2-0 (7.25%). The likeliest Lazio win was 0-1 (9.35%), while for a drawn scoreline it was 1-1 (12.66%). The actual scoreline of 1-3 was predicted with a 3% likelihood.
-0.37) 
0.46) 
