SM
Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a AC Milan win with a probability of 62.47%. A draw had a probability of 21.5% and a win for Monza had a probability of 16.02%.
The most likely scoreline for an AC Milan win was 1-0 with a probability of 11.99%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 2-0 (11.52%) and 2-1 (9.82%). The likeliest drawn scoreline was 1-1 (10.22%), while for a Monza win it was 0-1 (5.33%). The actual scoreline of 4-1 was predicted with a 3% likelihood. Our team at Sports Mole and our data analysis both correctly predicted that AC Milan would win this match.
| Result | ||
| AC Milan | Draw | Monza |
62.47% ( -0.18) | 21.5% ( 0.02) | 16.02% ( 0.15) |
| Both teams to score 48.96% ( 0.27) |
| Goals |
| Over 2.5 | Under 2.5 |
| 52.41% ( 0.19) | 47.59% ( -0.19) |
| Over 3.5 | Under 3.5 |
| 30.21% ( 0.17) | 69.79% ( -0.18) |
| AC Milan Goals |
| Over 0.5 | Under 0.5 |
| 85.35% ( 0) | 14.65% ( -0.01) |
| Over 1.5 | Under 1.5 | ||||||||
| 57.21% ( 0.01) | 42.79% ( -0.02) |
| Monza Goals |
| Over 0.5 | Under 0.5 |
| 57.36% ( 0.31) | 42.64% ( -0.32) |
| Over 1.5 | Under 1.5 | ||||||||
| 21.02% ( 0.27) | 78.98% ( -0.27) |
| Score Analysis |
| AC Milan | Draw | Monza |
| 1-0 @ 11.99% ( -0.1) 2-0 @ 11.52% ( -0.08)2-1 @ 9.82% ( 0.01)3-0 @ 7.38% ( -0.05)3-1 @ 6.29% ( 0.01)4-0 @ 3.54% ( -0.03)4-1 @ 3.02% ( 0.01)3-2 @ 2.68% ( 0.03)5-0 @ 1.36% ( -0.01)4-2 @ 1.29% ( 0.01)5-1 @ 1.16% ( 0)Other @ 2.42% Total : 62.46% | 1-1 @ 10.22% ( 0.01) 0-0 @ 6.25% ( -0.05)2-2 @ 4.19% ( 0.04)Other @ 0.85% Total : 21.5% | 0-1 @ 5.33% ( 0) 1-2 @ 4.36% ( 0.04)0-2 @ 2.27% ( 0.02)1-3 @ 1.24% ( 0.02)2-3 @ 1.19% ( 0.02)Other @ 1.64% Total : 16.02% |
| Team | P | W | D | L | F | A | GD | PTS | |
| C | Napoli | 37 | 27 | 6 | 4 | 75 | 28 | 47 | 87 |
| 2 | Lazio | 37 | 21 | 8 | 8 | 58 | 30 | 28 | 71 |
| 3 | Inter Milan | 37 | 22 | 3 | 12 | 70 | 42 | 28 | 69 |
| 4 | AC Milan | 37 | 19 | 10 | 8 | 61 | 42 | 19 | 67 |
| 5 | Atalanta BCAtalanta | 37 | 18 | 7 | 12 | 61 | 46 | 15 | 61 |
| 6 | Roma | 37 | 17 | 9 | 11 | 48 | 37 | 11 | 60 |
| 7 | Juventus | 37 | 21 | 6 | 10 | 55 | 33 | 22 | 59 |
| 8 | Torino | 37 | 14 | 11 | 12 | 42 | 40 | 2 | 53 |
| 9 | Fiorentina | 37 | 14 | 11 | 12 | 50 | 42 | 8 | 53 |
| 10 | Monza | 37 | 14 | 10 | 13 | 46 | 47 | -1 | 52 |
| 11 | Bologna | 37 | 13 | 12 | 12 | 50 | 47 | 3 | 51 |
| 12 | Udinese | 37 | 11 | 13 | 13 | 47 | 47 | 0 | 46 |
| 13 | SassuoloSassuolo | 37 | 12 | 9 | 16 | 46 | 58 | -12 | 45 |
| 14 | Empoli | 37 | 10 | 13 | 14 | 37 | 47 | -10 | 43 |
| 15 | Salernitana | 37 | 9 | 15 | 13 | 48 | 60 | -12 | 42 |
| 16 | Lecce | 37 | 8 | 12 | 17 | 31 | 43 | -12 | 36 |
| 17 | SpeziaSpezia | 37 | 6 | 13 | 18 | 30 | 60 | -30 | 31 |
| 18 | Hellas VeronaHellas Verona | 37 | 7 | 10 | 20 | 30 | 56 | -26 | 31 |
| 19 | Cremonese | 37 | 4 | 12 | 21 | 34 | 69 | -35 | 24 |
| R | Sampdoria | 37 | 3 | 10 | 24 | 24 | 69 | -45 | 19 |
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