Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Cartagena win with a probability of 50.19%. A draw had a probability of 25.5% and a win for Alcorcon had a probability of 24.26%.
The most likely scoreline for a Cartagena win was 1-0 with a probability of 12.22%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 2-0 (9.45%) and 2-1 (9.37%). The likeliest drawn scoreline was 1-1 (12.12%), while for an Alcorcon win it was 0-1 (7.84%). The actual scoreline of 3-1 was predicted with a 4.8% likelihood. Our data analysis correctly predicted that Cartagena would win this match.
