SM
| Current League Standings | P | GD | PTS | |
| 1 | Almeria | 41 | 33 | 80 |
| 2 | Eibar | 40 | 19 | 80 |
| 3 | Real Valladolid | 41 | 25 | 78 |
| Current League Standings | P | GD | PTS | |
| 20 | Amorebieta | 41 | -20 | 40 |
| 21 | Fuenlabrada | 42 | -26 | 33 |
| 22 | Alcorcon | 41 | -35 | 26 |
Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Almeria win with a probability of 67.74%. A draw had a probability of 19.8% and a win for Alcorcon had a probability of 12.42%.
The most likely scoreline for an Almeria win was 2-0 with a probability of 13.03%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 1-0 (12.85%) and 2-1 (9.52%). The likeliest drawn scoreline was 1-1 (9.39%), while for an Alcorcon win it was 0-1 (4.63%). The actual scoreline of 1-1 was predicted with a 9.4% likelihood.
| Result | ||
| Almeria | Draw | Alcorcon |
67.74% ( 0.59) | 19.84% ( -0.01) | 12.42% ( -0.57) |
| Both teams to score 45.02% ( -1.59) |
| Goals |
| Over 2.5 | Under 2.5 |
| 52.07% ( -1.24) | 47.93% ( 1.24) |
| Over 3.5 | Under 3.5 |
| 29.89% ( -1.15) | 70.11% ( 1.15) |
| Almeria Goals |
| Over 0.5 | Under 0.5 |
| 86.84% ( -0.2) | 13.16% ( 0.2) |
